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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale_laroy who wrote (34637)	4/3/2001 12:14:05 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Dale, We will see if Intel figures out something with P4. Are they done spending $300 mil promoting it? There was a post here I believe this morning saying that the P4 motherboards are exceeding expectation. Both MSI and Asus sales surpassed 10,000 per month <g>. In the meantime, on the hardware BBSs scene, there seems to be a feeding frenzy over Micron / Crucial DDR RAM. I think a 50% cut in the prices of DDR, and apparently Crucial DDR DIMMS are by far the best, should help Athlon sales, (if they need any help). Actually, with DDR so cheap, it would be nice to see some of the integrated chipsets using DDR, to help Duron finally turn .18u P6 line into dead meat. Joe

To: dale_laroy who wrote (34637)	4/3/2001 12:14:54 AM
From: jcholewa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

> "- overall demand collapses like it did in Q4" > Not a significant danger, even if it occurs. I think it's more of a danger than you'd think. If it happens, that is. Luckily, it's just possible that AMD might have underestimated their shipment numbers for Q1, and they might be smart enough to do the same for Q2, so that particular danger may be averted. > "- flash may be extremely week and will offset any > potential gains in the CPU market" > Possible. Contract sales can be cancelled. I think you may overestimate the possibilities here. First off, AMD gets a breach penalty payment if this happens. Secondly, I suspect that cancellations would be managed ahead of time by a number of weeks (eg, the customer couldn't suddenly say "Hey, remember those six million ICs you just shipped out to us? Well, we've changed our minds, so we'll reroute it all back to you, free of charge"). Hmmm, now that I think about it, isn't AMD required to announce news that would materially affect the company and stock? Wouldn't a contract cancellation fall under this category? > "- notebook entry arrives too late to make any difference" > Very likely, but this probably would not be enough to cause a weak quarter. If AMD is smart, then they'll give their financial estimates with the assumption of no new mobile products.