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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chic_hearne who wrote (42669)	4/3/2001 2:50:45 AM
From: Prognosticator	Respond to of 64865

Sure you like it, it agrees with your pessimistic view. I'm waiting to see the formulae and assumptions behind the numbers, because as I've said, I think the analysis is flawed. Right now companies aren't being valued by fundamentals, in exactly the same way they weren't being valued by fundamentals a year ago. Keep shorting chic, one day you'll have to buy them back, and I hope you have your finger on the trigger, and level-2 is fast enough. P.

To: chic_hearne who wrote (42669)	4/3/2001 1:30:23 PM
From: Wayners	Respond to of 64865

I picked the high end of the range of the growth assumption for the quarter based on SUNW's guidance. I have to use this short term guidance number because quite frankly there's nothing else to use until the quarter ends and they do the guidance for the next quarter in the conference call. You could certainly use the low end of their guidance estimate for this quarter and obtain a lower valuation number. I think the street has to return to valuing on future earnings growth. Some of the stuff in recent past especially the multiples of sales made no sense for stocks where the earnings didn't approximate the sales growth rates. Thats where the street went wrong IMO. I would want to know SUNW guidance for the next quarter and forward before placing any bets thats for sure. I wish I had the inside track to order backlogs, inventory and sales figures on a weekly basis that I have a feeling plenty of analysts have access to. Waiting for the economy to actually tick up will be a bit too late for my liking. We would see a rebound in stocks first. Some large caps in tech would need to show that their sales growth aren't slipping further or just barely starting to increase again to get this stuff to bottom. I thought the NAPM yesterday was encouraging in that it showed a very slight uptick in manufacturing off very low levels.