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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (5786)	4/3/2001 6:53:06 PM
From: Asymmetric	Respond to of 6317

Good Afternoon, Tom. Just keep in mind, no guarantee these companies keep making money as we progress into the year. Cisco holding a ton of inventory, and Jabil has 20% exposure there...Also with CLECs (PSINet the disaster du jour), & ISPs going bankrupt/selling off assets at literally pennies on the dollar, the better off CLECs/Telecomm companies may just wait for the weak ones to go belly up and pick up equipment that way instead of buying it. Conservation of capital and self-preservation are the names of the game now, as well as trying to reach break-even. Also remember that ECMs were built so that in theory when/if one customer or if even one sector stumbled, manufacturing lines could then be switched to the healthy companies/sectors and you'd hardly notice it as far as impact on the bottom line. The unnerving thing about the situation presently is that every technology sector is seeing significant slowdown in demand. So if there is a general economic recession (which many now firmly believe is happening), the ECMs will take some pretty heavy duty hits...still. A deep economic recession will cause Jabil, and other ECMs to operate just like any regular industrial/technology manufacturing company - ie, idle capacity and high fixed costs. And as you know, profit margins, even in good times are razor thin...so, in bad times.... Good luck to all. Peter.

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (5786)	4/17/2001 9:39:58 AM
From: Michael Hart	Respond to of 6317

Cisco inventory write-off: I believe if Cisco ( and their competitors) has written off (scrapped) a pile of obsolete finished goods inventory than they will need to replace that inventory with new products as quickly as possible. The end result would be extremely positive for solectron, Celestica, Jabil and others as Cisco and their competitors will be ramping up orders for the products that will be in demand later this year or early next. This may to simple a view.... Anyone else have any thoughts regarding this ? Thnx, Mike