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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CAtechTrader who wrote (35190)4/3/2001 11:54:37 AM
From: r.edwards  Respond to of 65232
 
Strong Buy-Speculative Objective: Growth
Price Target: $38
Advanced Semiconductors
Price (03/20/01): $14.92
52-Week Range: $91-$15
Year End: June
Fiscal Yr. EPS P/E
2000A $0.43 34.7x
2001E $0.68 21.9x
2002E $0.62 24.1x
ROE: 10.2%
Book Value: $6.50
Est. 3-Year EPS: 30%
Shares Outs.: 75.2 million
Market Cap.: $1.12 billion
James H. Moeller
(612) 313-1216
jmoeller@dainrauscher.com
Harold J. Mellen, III
(612) 313-1293
jmellen@dainrauscher.com
March 23, 2001
Cree, Inc.
Nasdaq: CREE
Investment Highlights
¨ World Leader In Silicon Carbide Technology: Cree, Inc. is the world leader in Silicon
Carbide (SiC) technology, and has a significant intellectual property position in the use
of this novel semiconducting material.
¨ Silicon Carbide Makes Great Power Amplifiers: SiC-based devices can operate between
30 megahertz (MHz) and 4 gigahertz (GHz), at power levels exceeding 50 watts. They
operate in this range very efficiently and, due to the excellent thermal conductivity of the
material, dissipate heat efficiently. Therefore, SiC power amplifiers do not require the
same cooling as Silicon (Si) or Gallium Arsenide (GaN) devices. Cree is targeting its novel
devices for wireless infrastructure equipment, such as 3G wireless power amplifiers.
¨ UltraRF Acquisition Positions Cree In the Power Amp Business Today: Aside from
being an exceptionally complimentary technology to Cree™s existing technologies, the
acquisition of UltraRF provided developed, saleable laterally diffused metal-oxide
semiconductor (LDMOS) and Silicon bipolar products into the power amplifier market.
We believe the relationships Cree can build using the LDMOS product line produced at
UltraRF will enable it to leverage next-generation technologies based in SiC and GaN.
¨ Blue Lasers Enable Increases In Optical Data Density: The blue and near-ultraviolet laser
diode market potential could provide significant upside to forward revenue estimates. Blue
and ultraviolet light is approximately one-half the wavelength of red or infrared light. In
optical storage devices, this means more data can be packed into a smaller area. International
Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that the market for optical storage devices should grow
to more than 300 million units in 2004 from approximately 130 million units in 2000.
¨ SiC Provides an Alternative to Incandescent Lighting: An attractive property of blue LEDs
is the ability to convert the blue light to white light by passing it through a phosphor or other
polymeric material. This provides a real alternative to white incandescent lighting. Currently,
every traditional lighting manufacturer is working with a solid-state partner on alternatives to
incandescent lighting. Cree has relationships with Osram Opto Semiconductors GMBH and
GelCore, a joint venture between General Electric Lighting and EMCORE Corporation.
¨ SiC-Based Power Devices Are Very Efficient: SiC-based power devices have the
potential to handle significantly higher power densities than existing Si-based devices.
They can also operate at considerably higher temperatures and voltages with superior
switching capabilities. This results in power savings and higher efficiencies. In 1999, the
company entered into a three-year project agreement with Kansai Electric Power Company
for the development of SiC-based power devices. Cree recently demonstrated a 12 kV
high-efficiency SiC rectifier for use in electric power switching.
¨ Significant Growth Potential In Cree™s Total Available Market: The total available
market for Cree products is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of
approximately 28% between calendar year 2001 and 2005. In dollar terms, the market
should grow to $2.2 billion from approximately $840 million.
¨ Strong Buy-Speculative Rating and $38 Price Target: Going forward, we believe Cree can
trade conservatively at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of approximately 66x earnings or
approximately 56x calendar year 2001 earnings. This is a significant discount to its historical
average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 82x and a slight discount to the
mean 2001 P/E ratio of its peer group of 59x. We rate Cree Strong Buy-
Speculative with a price target of $38 per share.



To: CAtechTrader who wrote (35190)4/3/2001 12:04:55 PM
From: im a survivor  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 65232
 
Is there a bottom in sight <ggg>,,,,besides ZERO!

Heck, I would settle for a good ole fashioned short term bear rally just so I could sell one or two things....

Am really amazed at just how low they have taken things. I thought last year was bad when tech stocks were correcting from $150 - $75.....I remember thinking "sheez, I cannot believe they have come down to these price levels"...now I sit here thinking the same thing....jdsu, sunw soon to be under $10 or $5 stocks and the list goes on and on and on...simply amazing.

Biggest mistake I ever made, and keep on making, is assuming a bottom is close, and therfor not selling. heck, in hindsight, I wish I had taken my extreme losses when the stocks went from 150 - 75....at least I could be buying back 5 times as much for the same amount of money right now.....simply amazing....I sure would like to buy a boatload of stocks like jdsu and sunw under $10, but frankly, dont see where the cash will come from. I have a measly amount of cash I added to my 401k...$2k, and thats about all the spending power I have as I am fully vested watching this $hit drop more and more on a daily basis......Oh well, I guess I'll use that $2k to buy 2000 shares of jdsu, orcl, sunw or ntap...whichever one hits $1 first.....

keith



To: CAtechTrader who wrote (35190)4/3/2001 2:46:20 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
CATMan, I expect oversold extremes to last until April 15th or so

first, most reporting will have been completed
forward guidance will be done and clearly stated as miserable or invisible
any not reporting will be assumed to be miserable and invisible

second, tax selling will be done at the latest by then

third, the Chinese will have enough time to make Nintendo games out of our spyplane

/ jim



To: CAtechTrader who wrote (35190)4/3/2001 2:46:20 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
CATMan, I expect oversold extremes to last until April 15th or so

first, most reporting will have been completed
forward guidance will be done and clearly stated as miserable or invisible
any not reporting will be assumed to be miserable and invisible

second, tax selling will be done at the latest by then

third, the Chinese will have enough time to make Nintendo games out of our spyplane

/ jim



To: CAtechTrader who wrote (35190)4/3/2001 2:46:20 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
CATMan, I expect oversold extremes to last until April 15th or so

first, most reporting will have been completed
forward guidance will be done and clearly stated as miserable or invisible
any not reporting will be assumed to be miserable and invisible

second, tax selling will be done at the latest by then

third, the Chinese will have enough time to make Nintendo games out of our spyplane

/ jim



To: CAtechTrader who wrote (35190)4/3/2001 2:47:53 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
CATMan, I expect oversold extremes to last until April 15th or so
the market is finally beginning to come to grips with the nonsense behind...
"2nd half recovery"
what a joke, what a pathetic sales pitch for Houses bailout attempt

first, most reporting will have been completed
forward guidance will be done and clearly stated as miserable or invisible
any not reporting will be assumed to be miserable and invisible

second, tax selling will be done at the latest by then
probably sooner than April 15th

third, the Chinese will have enough time to make Nintendo games out of our spyplane
lots of wicked sharp gizmos will require a couple of weeks for retro-fitting, then export

/ jim



To: CAtechTrader who wrote (35190)4/3/2001 2:51:06 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
CATMan, I expect oversold extremes to last until April 15th or so
they perhaps a relief rally lasting two days or two weeks or two hours
the market is finally beginning to come to grips with the nonsense behind...
"2nd half recovery"
what a joke, what a pathetic sales pitch for Houses bailout attempt

first, most reporting will have been completed
forward guidance will be done and clearly stated as miserable or invisible
any not reporting will be assumed to be miserable and invisible

second, tax selling will be done at the latest by then
probably sooner than April 15th

third, the Chinese will have enough time to make Nintendo games out of our spyplane
lots of wicked sharp gizmos will require a couple of weeks for retro-fitting, then export

/ jim