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Strategies & Market Trends : ZenWarrior's Trading Paradise -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ZenWarrior who wrote (300)	4/3/2001 12:44:38 PM
From: manfmnantucket	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2462

ok I'm game for some verbal badminton here... >Most bear markets end after a year when they originate from normal bull-market trends, as opposed to speculative manias, and then spend some time in a downtrend. The NAS hasn't yet returned to its long-term uptrend line near 1600... so from a pessimistic perspective, it would first need to "burst" back to that and possibly have a bear range below that if in fact negative growth continues. The DJIA, on the other hand, has only just begun a decisive move down from its consolidation above 10K. >investors will be much more cautious after this last year. I do expect a bull market though. These two observations seem contradictory - in an environment of severe recession and investor caution, why would one expect an uptrend to resume, until business once again shows signs of health? After the 1929 mania, stocks were dull for many years... MfN