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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73992)	4/3/2001 2:18:38 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

$ index breaking down out of a three little stooges rising wedge, might be making a significant pivot from this area of resistance of the 117-119 area, gold bullion might be making a dubya here -g-

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73992)	4/3/2001 3:43:23 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Re VIX: It may be that the VIX responds more vigorously to Market declines associated with financial crises and internal Market disruptions, than to Market declines precipitated by profits/economic recessions. An examination of 1990 vs 1997 and 1998 might be revealing, if the VIX existed that far back.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73992)	4/4/2001 1:55:34 AM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

George, in late 1998, there was a global financial crisis (as you know) which brought the VIX to levels as high as 60. There was panic selling on one or two days in October, if I recall correctly. Panic selling is, by definition, the VIX's best friend. On the contrary, during our current bear market, we've had relatively orderly, but painful insidious decline with profit warnings being methodically trotted out where the VIX may not ever exceed 40 significantly and therefore, waiting for 60 may not be a valuable metric. It does seem that different sectors HAVE ALREADY "capitulated" under the surface of the market indices. I suppose one could call it a "rolling capitulation" where we don't get one nice, clean, textbook capitulation that everyone wants to see. And, remember, that most bear markets "end in a wimper" as the saying goes, because there isn't always a violent capitulation. Rather there is increasing disinterest in stocks because so many people have been hurt and walk away. At some point, there are no more people walking away and buyers notice the market is rising for no reason. Then, low and behold, bear markets begin to ascend out of the gloom when they want to. IMO, we're nearing that point and I view this universal pessimism as a good thing.