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To: Tommaso who wrote (2765)	4/3/2001 4:31:10 PM
From: JungleInvestor	Respond to of 23153

Tommaso, excellent points on the money supply! The rapid money supply growth will probably accelerate as Greenspan reduces interest rates further to prevent a recession. Stagflation appears to be on the horizon and this could be multi-year. Commodity prices should be beneficiaries of rapid money supply growth and the dollar should tumble. I plan to invest in gold big-time when the dollar falls about 15%. Well last Friday was certainly not the restart of the spring rally for energy stocks (ALL of my investments really got hammered the last several weeks), but I still think that earnings announcements could very well rekindle the rally. There are such bargains out there in energy-land! Sooner or later value will out.

To: Tommaso who wrote (2765)	4/4/2001 12:25:52 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 23153

Hi Tommaso - Grant's Interest Rate Observer was pointing out that total Fed Credit has grown only 3.8% in the last 12 months - So there is still some contraction in the system from the prior tight money and rate cuts. MZM hasn't really caught up yet. >>> I think some of the MZM is people and mutual funds hidding in cash >>> There was a trend about a month ago to move out of money funds into FDIC insured accounts. The huge drop in Naz valuation represents over 2 trillion in nominal 'value' going away - this is strongly deflationary. Also, the first five months of this year, the fed government ran a 26 billion surplus - last year at this time was a 26 billion deficit. So the economy is stalling and Greenspan is pushing very hard on the gas... But it takes on average, 8 months for an interset rate move to effect the real economy - that means late August /September.... Somewhere between these two factors, current deflation vs. accelerating money supply growth - (refaltion) there will be some GREAT opportunites...probably in energy, maybe metals, maybe currencies. But I don't have a clue how to time it yet.