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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert who wrote (19950)	4/3/2001 4:24:06 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 24042

No argument there. You are absolutely right. I was just stating the sentiment which appears to be going on right now.

To: Robert who wrote (19950)	4/3/2001 7:08:53 PM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Robert: You've hit the nail on the head. Just as the market reached the irrational exuberance phase just a little over one short (no pun intended, heh) year ago now it's verging on irrational pessimism. So right now I'm at a cash level not seen by me in over 5 years, biding my time and awaiting a smoothing out of the turmoil. But even so, I'm inclined to side with one threadster, who alluded to the distinct possibility that the '90's were a once in a generation event. As the market evisceration continues it is looking more and more like this is the case. In fact, here's a site, where they do some basic comparisons, worth mulling over: lowrisk.com Bottom line? Just as the '90's bubble was historic, so too is this bursting bear. The silver lining to all this? Although the market is probably not going to be approaching anything like the old highs any time soon still, if you're good and lucky as a stock picker, you can continue to do well (both as a short & a long). And just think, all those 20-something fund managers and "analysts" are now going to have to adjust to reflect this new reality. And something tells me that there's gonna be a lot of job "rotation" going on where THAT is concerned, because stock picking is a hell of a lot more difficult than going with the momo crowd. Regards! John~

To: Robert who wrote (19950)	4/3/2001 9:55:52 PM
From: pass pass	Respond to of 24042

same thing was said about Xerox back in '73.

To: Robert who wrote (19950)	4/6/2001 10:06:46 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Bob, Your post is very interesting. SUNW is on my list of core holdings in the tech sector, along with EMC (at the top of my list), ORCL, and TXN. My speculating buy list include: CREE, API (former PEB), AFFX, YHOO, and BEAS. MSFT and INTC are on my overvalued list (hey, they are DOW components). CSCO and JDSU are on my avoid-list because I believe that they will underperform the market in the near- to mid-term. The market is getting crasier on a daily basis.:) Now, to be serious, I think the best strategy is to begin accumulation in the next leg down. And average down until NAZ to 1000, if it ever goes there. I will keep at least 15% cash in hand... So DELL is a value play now. How funny! The issue, my previous #1 holding in 1997 spotted a 'hefty' trailing P/E of 25 on the day the market hit bottom (lots of short sellers screamed that DELL was way overvalued at that time). Sept 97? Cannot remember the date. At that time, DELL was growing top and bottom line numbers at a 55-70% annual rate. However, our dear Michael has missed 5-6 quarters in the last 2 1/2 years and basically shown no growth (or negative bottom line growth during that period of time), and still trades at a P/E of 31 as of today. And you call this a bear market valuation? So what's the fuss of valuation on this market? Sure the market is much cheaper as compared with that of blown off top. However, do you really believe that the market in general is cheap? Well, valuations are in the eyes of the beholders. Some investors(on this board) screamed that CSCO was a steal at 70! Random musing: The Fed and Wall Street are betting that a torrid consumer spending should help the US economy avoid the recession. However, consumer saving rate right now is a nice -1.8% as compared with close to +10% in early 1990s. How low this number can go? It looks like a very nice and serious bubble to me. BTW, it's not easy to be bearish in this ridiculous bull market. And it's even tougher to be bearish for 8 consecutive months when market gods and goddess (AFC etc) have been screaming buy and pounding tables like there is no tomorrow. ... And what can be more difficult for a former bull and momentum trader to realize that the bull market has gone too far and it has to crash, and crash hard? Trust me, it's not easy to resist the temptation to buy CSCO at 50 and average down until...because it has been proven year in and year out that buying dip is the most efficient way to make $$ in THIS bull market. When Greenspan first screamed out 'irrational exeburence' toward the market, DOW was sitting at a little over 6k, and NAZ at 1200. larry!