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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (74023)	4/3/2001 5:41:43 PM
From: TRINDY	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Greetings, Diamond. Interesting post. How quickly things move. A number of us are trying to figure out how long this carnage has to go. But, I'm reminded of words from Lincoln's second inaugural address: "until every drop of blood drawn with the lash, shall be paid by another drawn with the sword." Must we go from "irrational exuberance" to "total (don't want to think about, speak about, or hear about stocks) disinterest." Some think so. If so, we still have a long way to go. The SOXX held well today. Given the carnage, it shouldn't have. Historical average trailing P/E's for the S&P 500 would place it 300 points (27%) below today's close. Undervalued P/E's, the type observed in real bear markets, would place the S&P 500 another 300 points lower, at 500. (Source: Decisionpoint.com, S&P P/E ranges chart) The S&P 500 at 500. Wouldn't that be something. Every drop of irrational exuberance would, then, certainly be repaid. Trindy

To: waverider who wrote (74023)	4/3/2001 6:50:02 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

I was a classic case of that misguided love>>> hey dood, that happens to all of us, that post is a great post for people to read, not to become too in love with an idea, a theme, an indicator, or a stock, because when you do fall in love, you average down in a down market, or add to your shorts in an upmarket when you should be "admitting defeat" like teresa lo sezs, or you think the market should act this way according to this indicator, because it has before, done it myself too many times -gg-. nobody should be bullish here or trying to pick the bottom, nobody (other than trying pick up a countertrend bounce)after a superbull market parabolic and all these stocks caving in and gaping down on downward earnings revision and the state of the economy in flux, there is nothing that indicates this is over, there may be like 5 or 6 bullz on si left at the bottom, just like there were about 5 or 6 bears left at the top.

To: waverider who wrote (74023)	4/3/2001 8:17:41 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

That's a great story. Thanks! I'm just glad Bobby Beara didn't scare me out of my biotech position too early <GGG> Hey, I even kept a little for long term, for shits and giggles <ggg> OK BB, it looks like you're going to get a chance to find out if gold is still money <ggg> Many people I work with will not touch their 401K money. I hope they don't capitulate at much lower levels, for their sake. If they are going to dollar cost average, they must commit themselves to continued infusions of capital through the entire bear. The real problem occurs if people start losing there jobs and can no longer contribute to their 401K. As soon as they stop their contributions, they will in all likelyhood reduce their average expected long term return and diminish an important source of liquidity for the entire market. For people who have been in the market, fully committed since the beginning of the bull, there is still a chance to exit with decent returns. Will those people lock in their gains (they are probably still better than average at this point)? Probably not. So, they will commit themselves to average returns in a longer timeframe for not having the ability to assess the true nature of LTBH, and cash out with better than average returns. One last curiosity for the thread. I couple of times I have recieved letters from certain investments firms advising me not to panic out of my holdings. How many others have recieved these letters of obfuscation? Why did they not send out letters warning clients of extreme excess and to reduce exposure (especially for those nearing retirement)? I find those letters amusing and disturbing at the same time.