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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Artslaw who wrote (34746)	4/3/2001 9:29:32 PM
From: ptanner	Respond to of 275872

Steve, Re: "If AMD has locked all their Flash into contracts (best case scenario)..." From 3Q00 CC the % of flash memory in long-term contracts was approaching 85%. Transcript @ JC's: jc-news.com search for "contract" as this was questioned repeatedly From 4Q00 CC they expected revenue growth for flash in 2001 of 40% (I believe it is a typo in the transcript). Transcript @ JC's (thanks!): jc-news.com search for "flash" Also, as AMD keeps repeating every CC (and the thread as well), AMD flash is less susceptible to market swings as it is less of a commodity - but could still be impacted by specific contract problems (a la Alcatel) which is why you balance the risk and secure the product use with contracts (AMD type flash often not readily interchangeable). HTH, -PT

To: Artslaw who wrote (34746)	4/3/2001 9:40:16 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Steven V. Walstra: "....then one might guess that Athlon sales will be less than last quarter (this must be my mistake). It is entirely possible that AMD can manufacture them for less, but I don't see it making up the slackening demand. Since Q4 included Christmas sales as well, which is traditionally a strong quarter for all companies, and this quarter will be coupled with a Flash earnings reduction from the Alcatel disagreement, how could they possibly have record revenues this quarter {oh, and let us not forget that they don't have another division to sell, if you want to count that as revenue!}? I would expect AMD to come in under last quarter unless they were able to sell the excess Alcatel flash at prices higher than the contract terms. Are we just haggling over "revenue" versus "profit", or am I just horribly misguided? As far as I know, latest company guidelines were calling for flat ($1.17 billion) to slightly lower revenues sequentially. Since that time AMD has suggested that excess demand exists for Dresden output and that Dresden will be at full capacity by Y2001 yearend...Indications are that Dresden will produce/ship at least 3 million units (ASP = $150, maybe even $175) or revenues around $500 million in Q1 and it's anybody's guess what number Austin will ship, but for the sake of argument let's say 3 million as well (ASP = $65) or revenues of $200 million, flash, if flat, gives $450 million and "other" another $50 million...Adding it up, one gets $1.2 billion..Probably some embedded processor revenues to account for as well...Not sure if that helps, but that's the way I see the numbers tumbling!!! Which numbers are off the mark?