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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (14571)	4/4/2001 12:15:11 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Velo- No warnings from any big-name tech (that I can see)...only 2nd-tier names....maybe that'll ease some pain tomorrow... EMC, CSCO, IBM SUNW, all have not warned (yet) this quarter...Any of those could knock the market for a loop... CMRC warning is a given....makes you wonder what those dudes are doing there...(why they are waiting so long)

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (14571)	4/4/2001 1:27:33 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 37746

Velo- I'm assuming that the bearish COMPX wave structure (Big 5 waves down)...counts Wave 1 (down) as the move from (approx.) 4160 to 2263, Wave 2 (corrective) from 2263 to 2894.....which would put us in a Wave 3 (down) from 2894 to the (intra-day) low of 1659... Now, it doesnt' make any sense to me to use absolute numbers here...if so, COMPX would have to get to sub-1000 this go round, and would be negative after Wave 5 down <G> So, I'm thinkin' you have to use percentages.......so, if Wave 1 (and I know I got the front number (4160) a bit wrong, but it should be close enough)....if Wave 1 (down) was 45.6%, Wave 2 (corrective) was approx. 28% up....Wave 3 is currently 42.6% down....... That means that we still have a WAVE 4 up to come (of, what, between 25-30%?...don't corrective Waves 2 and 4 come pretty close to each other).....AND a Wave 5...which, I would think, would be AT LEAST equal to Wave 1 on % terms... (Isn't Wave 3 usually the longest wave? If so, any guidlines on by how much- versus waves 1 and 5?) Anyway, even if we say Wave 3 "bottomed" today, we would then be looking for a rally to around 2100 (Corrective Wave 4), and then another decline (Wave 5 down) to the 1150-1211 area.... (Note: However, if current Wave 3s is the LONGEST on a % basis, that would mean that this current down wave has more to go....at least another 100-150 COMPX pts.)....and corrective Wave 4 would get us to 1900-2000 COMPX, and the last Wave 5 down to close to 1000.... Am I in the ballpark here? Is there any count that you know of that has the March-April 2000 Wave as the Wave 1 down? I don't see how that can make sense with the current wave structure.... (Btw- a failure in corrective Wave 4 in the 1900-2000 COMPX region- latter scenario- makes a lot of sense to me....it would remain below 90 COMPX channel, and psychologically important number of 2000) Please let me know if/where I'm wrong here.. Thanks...