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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (44996)	4/4/2001 4:01:59 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Have you noticed how, in the last month or so, people have stopped using forward earnings in their PE calculations? I remember, at the height of the Bubble, on lots of threads, a poster would get derided as hopelessly pessimistic if he didn't use EPS expectations at least 2 years out, when valuing a stock. And basing buying decisions on expected earnings 5-10 years out was not unusual. Now, no one talks any more about what they expect a company to do in a decade. And everyone has been burned by forward 12M EPS consensus estimates getting chopped in half, and then halved again. So, now, we are starting to do what used to be the norm (pre-bubble): use trailing 12M EPS, or the average of the past 5 years EPS growth. Another pre-bubble pattern I think we are going to return to: before a new company is ready for its IPO, it needs to have 2-3 years of positive and growing earnings, so there is a track record (rather than just hopes and prayers) to use in evaluating and valuing the stock. Until then, it's a gamble, and not a good one, and only Venture Capitalists should get near it. These are hopeful signs that sanity is returning.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (44996)	4/4/2001 9:22:09 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

[World DRAM Price] Microchip Prices Continue Falling in Major Markets April 4, 2001 (TOKYO) -- A survey of world DRAM prices conducted by ICIS-LOR showed that the moving average prices of DRAMs for large users and spot prices are continuing to fall. The moving average prices of 128Mb DRAMs (PC133, 16Mb x 8) for large users during the 30-day period from Feb. 15-March 16, 2001, were US$5.20 in North America, US$4.63 in Europe, and US$5.07 in Asia, the survey said. Compared with DRAM prices for the 30-day period ending March 9, the prices declined 3.06 percent in North America, dropped 8.56 percent in Europe, and dipped 4.91 percent in Asia, the survey said. Moreover, compared with the previous week, memory module prices for 128MB DIMM (PC133) dropped 3.3 percent to US$31.43 in North America, fell 2.85 percent to US$33.43 in Europe, and declined 3.15 percent to US$32.23 in Asia. Inventory adjustments of PCs continue although makers have different adjustment plans, but uncertainties are hanging over future PC shipments, the survey said. DRAM demand has moved upward compared with January when even lower prices failed to boost demand, but the upward trend has failed to push up prices, the survey said. ICIS-LOR has bases in London, Houston and Singapore. Table: 30-Day Rolling Averages of 128Mb DRAMs (PC133, 16M x 8) March 15-April 16, 2001 (survey by ICIS-LOR)Area Contract price Week-on-week comparison North America US$5.20 -3.06% Europe US$4.63 -8.56% Asia US$5.07 -4.91% *Week-on-week comparison is the comparison with the 30-day rolling averages of Feb. 8-March 9, 2001. Previous report: Decline Trend Continues; Large User Prices Likely to Fall Below US$5 (Tamao Kikuchi, Nikkei Market Access)