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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HammerHead who wrote (4889)	4/3/2001 10:40:44 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

>>80-90% drop on many stocks in such short time was just unthinkable<< Nah, the signs were there, it's just that idiots like me didn't fully comprehend their implications. I remember reading at one point last year that broadening tops scared the heck out of technicians for decades after the 1929 crash because so many of them appeared in leading stocks at the time. Well, I saw at least two perfect ones last year - in Juniper and Nokia - and a bunch of others that came very close. Plus head and shoulders patterns occurred in an awful lot of stocks last year, beginning with AOL and AMZN in late 1999-early 2000. There were a lot of signs last year of a major top in tech. My mistake was not realizing that the change in trend would carry stocks well beyond the miminum measurements of the broadening tops and H&S patterns, which is exactly what happened. I had a downside target of 114 on JNPR based on the broadening top measurement; needless to say, it went a little beyond that. Add the topping patterns in the S&P and Dow, and this thing may not be over for a while still. I think we've got another 10-15% down on the Dow and S&P, and another 20% on the Nasdaq. About the only point in favor of a bottom here is that all the indexes have now returned to the mid-1998 peaks (the NDX was the last one). I don't have a whole lot of confidence in these levels holding, however. The good news is I think we could get that last 10-20% in a hurry; the Dow looks like it's headed to 8300 in short order, based on the 10,850-9100 decline, duplicated from the 10,000 reaction high.