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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Londo who wrote (42032)	4/4/2001 2:03:42 AM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 56535

Boy, is this the place to come for the best in statistical techniques or what? Even though I'm not making any money, I feel my losses are more intelligent than the other guys, LOL. I've come to the conclusion there may not be a capitulation. Capitulations are probably more associated with times when equity ownership was limited. Today, with a majority of Americans are in the market, and a lot of those are participating in pooled ownership (i.e. mutuals). Probability of them all selling on the same day is smaller, IMO. Flip side is Bear will probably take longer to play out. A lot more equity inertia in the system preventing rapid moves. CD

To: Londo who wrote (42032)	4/4/2001 3:45:32 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 56535

just should point out that the system is not always full proof as Scholes was a part of the LTC (LongTermCapital) catastrophe and their faith in the mathematics walked them into a situation that imperiled the whole Market place. here is one recent post referring to that LTC debacle << To:Joel Gander who wrote (85141) From: oldirtybastard Saturday, Mar 24, 2001 8:58 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89692 Merton, Scholes, Merriwether, Haghani, Hillibrand and the rest of their gang also liked to play the percentages in their trading models, but it didn't work out so well. I'm sure that in the midst of their daily losses, when they went home at the end of the day, they were able to take solace in their statistics which told them everything would work out. Got fat tails? -g- >> the fundamental premise that markets are efficient is hotly disputed.Warren Buffet has said if markets were actually efficient he woudn't have made any money.just throwing in food for thought. BTW,as a disclaimer i must state i am ,in the main, anti-efficient market theory but fully realize these fellows got their Nobel on a track record of demonstrated success.But one must stand back and note that it also led to one histories greatest financial failures that only was kept from of a groud zero decimation via the emergency funding from the major U.S.Banks under the gun of the Fed for them to do so.PaxMax