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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (962)	4/5/2001 12:41:55 AM
From: Ken Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Some say it's just an "Inventory Correction" and growth will quickly resume when excess inventories are worked off. I've also heard this explanation a lot lately. And each time I hear it, I can't help but wonder, what happened to that touted "Just-in-time" inventory system that it seems everyone had recently instituted? I thought it was supposed to keep inventory levels at record low levels, and that inventory buildups were a thing of the past? Did I miss something? Does anyone know what happened to this apparently less-than-wonderful wonder? Ken

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (962)	4/5/2001 12:48:05 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10065

Pete / Inventory Correction Some say it's just an "Inventory Correction" and growth will quickly resume when excess inventories are worked off. I am in this camp and I believe excess inventories will be worked off quickly because it seems to me that the consumer has not slowed spending as slowly as most believe. Good article in yesterday's (?) New York Times about the major car manufacturers being behind the curve, that is, having less inventory and selling more cars than anticipated at this point in time. Further, the increase in the money supply now occurring indicates to me that consumers will be picking up their spending, lowering inventories, and that this period of economic slowdown may be shorter lived than popularly believed. To those on the board that think that monetary policy, interest rate cuts, are not very effective please study the period of the early 1980's and the Volcker Federal Reserve. In fact, Volcker proved when economic growth is slow, recessionary, there is no better tool to use than monetary policy. Study the period. Draw your own conclusions. I have drawn mine. This slowdown in the economy is not a permanent condition. Sentiment changes on a dime. Market turns are unexpected. Position yourselves accordingly. On another note BB's CTR call is beginning to sound like his comparison of the bears and winter. The bears say it will snow in June, then July, then August, and eventually they make the right call. BB's CTR call sounds just like this. After six months of an incorrect CTR call one of these months BB will have made the right call. Which leads me to a question. How many here have lost confidence in BB's ability to call the market and how is that effecting your investment decisions? People here must be double checking BB's work with other markettimers...which ones? I compare his forecast with Abby's and Elaine's both of which are much more bullish than BB. Based on BB's advice aggressive investors have 70% in the market...surely they have lost faith.