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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (89828)	4/4/2001 12:17:46 PM
From: smallcapmaven	Respond to of 436258

FIber Optic comparisons: AVNX earnings.nasdaq.com Fiscal Quarter End Consensus EPS* Forecast High EPS* Forecast Low EPS* Forecast Number of Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks Number of Revisions Up Down Mar 2001 0.023 0.03 0.02 9 0 0 Jun 2001 0.036 0.04 0.03 9 0 0 Sep 2001 0.054 0.06 0.04 9 1 0 Dec 2001 0.072 0.09 0.04 9 0 1 Mar 2002 0.092 0.11 0.05 9 0 0 Jun 2002 0.111 0.14 0.05 9 1 0 Quarterly Forecasts Yearly Earnings Forecasts Fiscal Year End Consensus EPS* Forecast High EPS* Forecast Low EPS* Forecast Number of Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks Number of Revisions Up Down Jun 2001 0.153 0.17 0.14 10 0 0 Jun 2002 0.312 0.38 0.18 10 1 0 So estimates are for $0.15 2001 and $0.31 2002 AFOP: earnings.nasdaq.com Quarterly Earnings Forecasts Fiscal Quarter End Consensus EPS* Forecast High EPS* Forecast Low EPS* Forecast Number of Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks Number of Revisions Up Down Mar 2001 0.005 0.01 0 4 0 2 Jun 2001 0.005 0.01 0 2 0 1 Sep 2001 0.01 0.01 0.01 2 0 2 Dec 2001 0.015 0.02 0.01 2 0 2 Mar 2002 0.01 0.01 0.01 1 0 1 Jun 2002 0.02 0.02 0.02 1 0 1 Sep 2002 0.03 0.03 0.03 1 0 1 Dec 2002 0.05 0.05 0.05 1 0 0 Yearly Earnings Forecasts Fiscal Year End Consensus EPS* Forecast High EPS* Forecast Low EPS* Forecast Number of Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks Number of Revisions Up Down Dec 2001 0.032 0.04 0.03 5 0 0 Dec 2002 0.105 0.12 0.08 4 0 3 AFOP estimates are for $0.03 for 2001 and $0.11 for 2002 CIEN: earnings.nasdaq.com Quarterly Earnings Forecasts Fiscal Quarter End Consensus EPS* Forecast High EPS* Forecast Low EPS* Forecast Number of Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks Number of Revisions Up Down Apr 2001 0.165 0.18 0.15 26 0 0 Jul 2001 0.183 0.21 0.17 25 0 0 Oct 2001 0.213 0.25 0.2 25 0 0 Jan 2002 0.245 0.29 0.23 12 0 0 Apr 2002 0.278 0.33 0.25 12 0 0 Jul 2002 0.318 0.38 0.28 12 0 0 Oct 2002 0.359 0.44 0.3 12 0 0 Yearly Earnings Forecasts Fiscal Year End Consensus EPS* Forecast High EPS* Forecast Low EPS* Forecast Number of Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks Number of Revisions Up Down Oct 2001 0.74 0.79 0.71 24 1 1 Oct 2002 1.176 1.44 0.95 27 0 0 CIEN earnings of $0.74 2001 and $1.18 2002 JDSU: earnings.nasdaq.com Quarterly Earnings Forecasts Fiscal Quarter End Consensus EPS* Forecast High EPS* Forecast Low EPS* Forecast Number of Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks Number of Revisions Up Down Mar 2001 0.139 0.18 0.1 30 1 5 Jun 2001 0.132 0.21 0.08 29 1 26 Sep 2001 0.141 0.17 0.12 19 0 4 Dec 2001 0.154 0.18 0.13 19 0 4 Mar 2002 0.167 0.19 0.14 19 0 4 Jun 2002 0.191 0.25 0.15 19 0 10 Sep 2002 0.22 0.22 0.22 1 0 0 Dec 2002 0.23 0.23 0.23 1 0 0 Yearly Earnings Forecasts Fiscal Year End Consensus EPS* Forecast High EPS* Forecast Low EPS* Forecast Number of Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks Number of Revisions Up Down Jun 2001 0.643 0.67 0.57 35 0 9 Jun 2002 0.641 0.9 0.5 34 0 10 Jun 2003 0.99 0.99 0.99 1 0 0 JDSU estimates $0.64 2001 0.64 2002 0.99 2003 AVNX $9.30 for $0.15 and $0.31 earnings per share AFOP $7.38 for $0.03 and $0.11 "" "" "" CIEN $38.00 $0.74 $1.18 JDSU $15.00 $0.64 $0.64 $0.99 Forward p/e's ................2001....2002....2003 AVNX.............62......30......N/A AFOP............246......67......N/A CIEN.............51......38......N/A JDSU.............23......23......15 Clearly AFOP is way overvalued (especially since 40% of production comes from China)and JDSU is undervalued in comparison...IMO the projections are too high especially for AFOP...Short any rally...The customers continue to drop like flies I suspect that ultimately the Fiber optic space will end up like the Dot com space...