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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9617)	4/4/2001 5:39:21 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

At least now when my stocks are down 5% in a day, it isn't so much money. It would be agony to figure the percentage drop, but it's a least 60%. And without JDSU either, just some good stocks like COHU and NANO and AMK, etc. Chips were supposed to be less cyclical because broadly based, but what a confluence of factors has aligned to wreck tech: post Y2K, lack of new computer programs requiring new computers, computer saturation, OPEC getting strong, cell phone sales stalling due to saturation and lack of new features, the FED going blind, Internet merchant companies hangover, regulatory system out of wack, the non-appearance of the expected improvement in Internet utility (still unreliable, still overloaded), the very slow improvement in the "last mile" connection (how long the 56k has been the mainline connection, and it still mostly works at 5k; and DSL and cable are sooo unreliable), Japan still on the ropes, and now China being aggressive. We can wait China out, but it will be ugly. Japan won't get its act together anytime soon. It will take awhile for OPEC to get weak again, although if the US goes into recession and drags the world economy down some, prices may get slightly better short term. Maybe 2.5G or 3G phones will roll out and be in demand, but that is a ways off. Maybe the government will find a way to encourage investment soon, but don't count on it. We all hope the FED will get a little wiser any day now. The benefit of lower interest rates should kick in sometime soon. The only new product I can see coming that will prompt the upgrading of computers are flat panel displays. Certainly almost everyone wants one. When prices drop, more people will get them. Also, Personal Handheld Devices, once they get more memory and drop in price, people will be getting more of them, but I think that is a slow adjustment as most people who could benefit from one aren't much interested in them now. In reality a good argument could be made for going to 100% cash even now. Tough market.