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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stribe30 who wrote (34839)	4/4/2001 4:19:26 PM
From: peter_luc	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

stribe30, "AMD slashes Athlon prices" Thanks for the info! It is highly interesting that AMD is still offering lower speed grades of Athlons (750 and up). This may be a sign that AMD did NOT stop the Athlon production in Austin as it had been announced. They may have in fact used excess capacity in Austin (due to low Duron demand) to produce some more Athlons, as it was mentioned a few weeks ago by X-Bit Labs. If true, this would have been a very good move since the Athlon is obviously selling much better and also commanding higher prices. In my eyes, the new price cuts seem to be a good move for two reasons: On the one hand, just as the drastic cuts in December, they keep the fire burning at AMD and steel the thunder of the forthcoming P4 1700 introduction. I believe that the so far disappointing sales of the Pentium 4 have a lot to do with AMD's price cuts in December. By this move AMD definitely kept the P4 out of the market. If AMD had not done it the P4 would now be a wide spread, generally accepted high-end processor. With the introduction of the 1.7 Gig P4 Intel will desperately try once again to significantly ramp P4 sales. But once again with these price cuts, AMD is closing the market for the P4. Thereby AMD is keeping the high end of the market completely for itself. And this will do wonders for AMD's general reputation. On the other hand, the new Athlon stepping seems to have such a high bin split that AMD can afford to push the demand towards the highest speed grade. 220$ for the 1.3 Gig part may seem ridiculously low, but when this is going to be the best selling CPU it might pay off big time. The only thing that is really ridiculously low is AMD's present share price. I am almost speechless regarding this week's price action. Even if the Alcatel story is indeed pretty bad news, I do not believe that it was justified that AMD lost one third of its value within one week. Peter

To: stribe30 who wrote (34839)	4/4/2001 4:26:19 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Buggi's AMD ASP page is excellent. I have seen this page before, but somehow I forgot about it. Here is the link again: www-public.tu-bs.de:8080/~y0005007/ Just download the latest Excel spreadsheet. My comment is that as far as the latest data is concerned, JC's numbers are a lot more accurate than his API / German prices. His calculation of ASP for Athlon using JC's USA low prices is $154. This number is probably about 5 to 10% higher than what AMD actually gets, if the proportion of various speed grades listed by the vendors correlates with the sales. I think there is a delay between what AMD sells and what the online vendors sell. And there is also inventory of old slow moving parts. This skews the data. AMD sells higher percentage of high speed parts today than what the spreadsheet shows. But this probably offsets the 5 to 10% mark-up, so the final ASP may be right on money. Athlon ASP of $150 would mean a very good quarter for AMD, if the # of units is in the 3.5 million ballpark. It would represent $535 million, almost matching Q4 revenue of $567 for all processors. Duron + K6 will add at least $100 million, $200 million being the most optimistic figure, so we could actually see a growth in the CPU revenue, rather than flat or worse as predicted. Joe

To: stribe30 who wrote (34839)	4/4/2001 4:57:48 PM
From: Neil Booth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

AMD slashes Athlon prices Wow, if that's true, production must be big for this quarter. I bet Jerry's enjoying the sweet revenge of squeezing Intel like Intel squeezed AMD 2 years ago. But I'd appreciate a pause and a pickup in ASPs anyway. Neil.

To: stribe30 who wrote (34839)	4/4/2001 8:13:34 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

stribe30: "AMD slashes Athlon prices" Nice to have so much demand and headroom at the top end that margins can be reduced across the board without affecting ASP owing to the lopping off at the bottom end of low priced processors(i.e K6's are all but gone as are Athys under 700 MHz) and introducing new product at the top end to offset any margin erosion from the price cuts(i.e 1.3 and 1.33 gig Athys)... Looks like AMD is serious about raising the entry bar to 1 gig real fast... Wish Goutama were running his contest...I'd sure love to see a cross section of entries...Jozef got me thinking with his optimistic $0.68 eps that, indeed, $0.32 may be more off the mark than anyone here would care to venture!!!