Here's another interesting article about mobile phones:
Mobile multimedia revolution coming soon
By Michael Bartlett
April 04, 2001
The hackneyed phrase, ''the revolution will be televised,'' has been updated
by Robert Tercek. Tercek, the president of applications and services at
Packet Video, said the new version is, ''the revolution will be televised on your
mobile device.''
Tercek is well known in Hollywood for establishing Sony Pictures
Entertainment's online programming strategy and interactive TV production
unit before moving to his present company. In his keynote addresses on the
opening day of the IWireless World conference, Tercek told a gathering of
wireless industry executives at the Beverly Hilton hotel that the evolution
toward next-generation devices has already begun in Korea and Europe.
''Telecom will continue to grow quickly, despite the recent hiccups,'' he said.
''There has been a lot of talk about the 'next billion users,' and while that is a
big number, many studies predict the growth will continue.''
Tercek quoted a recent study by IDC, a company that analyzes technology
markets, that predicted 1 billion mobile phones will be in use by 2003, and 70
percent of those will have Internet access. There is plenty of room for growth,
as he noted other studies that found 65 percent of the human population has
never made a telephone call.
''Because it lacks a wired infrastructure, China soon will pass the United
States to become the largest wireless consumer,'' Tercek predicted.
Step one of the evolutionary process Tercek foresees is a change in devices.
''I will make a radical proposition to you - that your next PC will be your mobile
phone.'' He quickly added that this idea originally was put forth by technology
guru George Gilder - 10 years ago. ''When Gilder first said it, no one could
see how it could happen. Now, the advancements in technology have made it
close enough to see.''
One reason Tercek believes the cellular phone will be an instrument of
revolution is because cost of the handset traditionally has been subsidized by
manufacturers or service providers to encourage consumers to pay for
subscriber services. The price, he said, has continued to drop $30 per year,
which helps fuel further growth.
Mobile phones soon will add TV qualities, Tercek continued. He said no one
expects consumers to watch a two-hour movie or a four-hour sporting event
on their cell phones, but video capability will add significantly to the value of
the handset.
''The next-generation DSP (digital signal processor) in mobile devices will be
very powerful,'' he said. ''Not only will these devices be able to play MPEG4
video, they will have many other capabilities, including voice command, which
will allow users to talk to the phone, text-to-speech synthesis, where the phone
will read your voice mail to you, GPS (global positioning system) navigation
and directions, music and other audio, and two-dimensional and
three-dimensional graphics.''
Other trends Tercek sees in hardware for mobile communication devices
include flexible components, the addition of a camera that will let users take a
picture and send it to their friends wirelessly, Bluetooth capability, and
organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays that can be viewed in bright
sunlight.
Tercek said he sees mobile phones today in the same position PCs were in
the early 1990s. Back then, computers were considered tools for
professionals to use for spreadsheets and word processing programs. ''Then
multimedia PCs made the computer into game centers and a way to connect
with the Internet. Phones will follow the same path,'' he said. ''Up until now,
they have been seen as the tools of mobile professionals.''
The market with the greatest growth potential, according to Tercek, is with
young people in America.
''Outside the U.S., there is a whole generation of kids who are used to doing
things like sending short text messages with a wireless phone, not a desktop
PC,'' he said.
Tercek said the Internet today is like a sprawling flea market. Trying to find
one particular item at teeming bazaar with thousands of blankets spread out
in a disorganized fashion is a bewildering experience, he said. ''In the future,
business will take over part of the Internet and turn it into a content mall. There
will be stores and items neatly packaged to separate people from their
money.''
The future of telecom will be in the selling of ''service bundles,'' he said. These
bundles will consist of the device, network access, messaging and content.
The company that is the best at the bundled service model is America Online
, said Tercek, then comes Japan's NTT DoCoMo I-Mode. He said I-Mode
was founded in February 1999 and grew so quickly it had 20 million
subscribers by the end of 2000. ''It shows no signs of abating, and soon will
pass AOL and become the largest,'' he said.
The key element for I-Mode is that it is geared towards young people and fun,
which Tercek said sends a message about the future.
''DoCoMo thought people would use I-Mode mostly for shopping, but instead,
they find that 55 percent of people use it for entertainment. DoCoMo has
figured out that people want fun and ease of use.''
''In the days ahead, the wireless web principally will be about messaging,'' he
added.
IWireless World continues through Wednesday.
More information on IWireless World is available on the Web at
iwirelessworld.com . |
