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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (74181)	4/4/2001 8:31:10 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Jack T. Pearson: <<Where should I invest all of the money?>> I, too have given this a great deal of thought. As badly as I did last year (I was slow to read the tea leaves), I sold all my techs in late January and went 100% cash in mid-February this year. FWIW, this is what I intend to do. First, I think that the NASDAQ and Dow will continue to fall up to the tax deadline (April 14/15) with my guess as to the bottom being 7800-8100 for the Dow and 1350-1500 for NASDAQ. Although 1100-1200 for NASDAQ is not out of the question, I think it is less likely. I will stay in cash until mid-April, then reevaluate. When I do re-enter the market, I am going to overweight the tech sector to the tune of 35-40% of my portfolio using the ProFunds Ultra OTC shares (UOPIX). I think the tech selloff will prove to be overdone and want to exploit what I feel will be a rare buying opportunity. I have given up trying to guess which individual tech stocks (large-cap vs. small-cap, semis, storage, etc.) will outperform out of the recovery and want to avoid the risk of buying individual tech stocks. The UOPIX shares or the QQQ's are more stable as a LT play and cannot "blow up" overnight with an earnings warning, etc. 55% of my portfolio will go into a basket of 8 to 10 mutual funds with proven stockpickers. The funds will cover large, mid and small-cap, growth and value, foreign, and several sectors (healthcare, financials, energy and power). 10% will be in cash for selected short-term buys or shorts, as the opportunities present themselves. I have no doubt that many astute technically-oriented individuals and traders on this thread will outperform me, but I will do well enough over the next 3 to 5 years. I want to: (1) spend less time reading about stocks: (2) avoid sitting in front of a computer trading; (3) distance myself emotionally from my portfolio without worrying what the market will do the next day. Quite simply, there is more to life (much more) than one's investments. Because the market will be more egalitarian coming out of this bear market, there will be many sectors that will do well in addition to tech. The market is too vast for me or any one person to follow carefully. While most mutual funds are poorly managed, there are several with portfolio managers that have shown their mettle over the last 5-10 years. My choices (FWIW) are: ARTIX, ARTMX, BJMIX, BMCFX, BRAGX, CVGCX, FMIOX, LLINX, LMVTX, MVALX, SFVBX, TMGFX, UMESX, WOGSX, AND WGROX. Obviously, if you do wish to spend a great deal of time researching and managing you investments, this will make little sense. However, for simplicity and what I anticipate will be reasonably good returns over the next five years, this is one approach. Any comments, either positive or negative, are welcome and would be appreciated. DlphcOracl