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To: Boplicity who wrote (12268)	4/4/2001 6:05:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

why will the market be crap for the next couple years? ALso, how can we prevent it from happening? B Next 4-5 years Because it takes years to work off the excesses of the largest bull market mainia in history Because we are still overvalued historically Because we are going to have a recession Because we are going to have a financial panic To prevent it from happening in the future, if EVERYONE would just sell everything in the next 3 days, we could bottom 3 days from now. Buyers will line up close to ZERO then we can pronounce THE bottom M

To: Boplicity who wrote (12268)	4/4/2001 7:04:52 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

Tomorrows market will look so much like todays market volatility it will make everybody dizzy. >There is no going back to 1987 type recovery or stability. Will have to adjust or perish The market is out of control, on the way up, and now on the way down. If the Feds can't control it nobody can. We have a problem with the techs. Too many shares on the market due to all the splits. Taking one example: EMC 1.There are 85 mm US housholds, with about 60% owning stocks in one form or another. 2. There are 2.2 bil shares of Emc outstanding 3. EMC was at $104 in the last year That computes out to about 440 shares of EMC for each shareholder at $104/sh = $45,760 dollars invested in EMC stock per household.. This is total insanity -check my math- please. I still can't believe it. Just one stock, not even a biggie like Csco, or a Msft or Orcl. We were each and all going to provide Emc $45k just to have storage on the Internet ? And each of us would have a gain of 20% or $9000 on the investment? Where would the money come from? I know, it was supposed to come from the next victim who bought EMC at $120 , like chain letter. Where are these shares? Well 1569 institutions hold Jdsu, 754 hold Cien, 689 hold Beas. Bought with investors $'s Every time they want a tax writeoff or get a bit of "up-tick" they are going to get dumped, with the money used to buy the next hot sector- like today its coal and gold, whatever. More stocks than we think, will go to ZERO. Now the good news is that stocks today do not have assessments as in the mining days, we can just keep the paper without paying more. Sig

To: Boplicity who wrote (12268)	4/4/2001 11:40:52 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

<why will the market be crap for the next couple years? ALso, how can we prevent it from happening? > I'm talking about the broad market, there will be pockets of performance of course... I'm buying gold [not too bearish eh?? ]. But IMO the damage is done, the debt has been taken on and must be worked off... as I've said before, throughout the whole economy. Individual, corperate, all types... record debt by any measure [% GNP, family Y, whatever]. The worst of course was telecom, which is obvious already... LU going bust, WOW. Anyway, no we're going into a recession, the lagging indicators are the same sector of the economy to get hit next all in a row: We've seen the fastest growth areas screech to a halt, and indeed reverse [lay offs], and then run of the mill growth companies do the same [unfortunately for manufacturing, etc. it's been a steady decline pretty much throughout], and next?? Well, it's pretty obvious what that is, and it hasn't even started: Consumers pulling in their horns... housing, gadgets, cars, travel... you name it. 2 Years??? Hell YES! Can't stop it... we're overdue for a recession, the economy is levered to the hilt and ready for action... ooops. Greenjeans kept the party going as long as he could... even if he hadn't raised rates it would have just been worse a year later. DAK