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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Davies who wrote (27567)	4/4/2001 10:39:09 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

At the last CC ATHM made it abundantly clear that subscriber growth estimates were being cut because the MSO's were being careful with cash flow. That's a lie on ATHM's part. They're deceiving because they have a much bigger problem. They can't exist on the installed base they have because the cost structure is too great. They had a Ponzi Scheme going, but now growth is slowing and not because of MSO deferral. Are you really saying or are they really saying that, say, Att wants to slow sub growth for reasons of cash? Att's entire bet is on the broadband end user. They bet their entire company on that fact. That fact has been discussed repeatedly on this thread and has been assumed to be a given. COX and Comcast are essentially of the same frame of mind because they don't have any alternative either. To me that means they are cutting back on upgrades, installs, and promotions - not spending money any faster than they are bringing in from current customers. Should they try to spend money faster than the rate of adding subs? What are you saying? Nonsense, that's what. You aren't thinking. My guess is that it takes 6 months to pay back the cost of an install. Why not? It may be shortsighted of them, but its pretty clear they are deliberatly slowing things down. You mean that's your conclusion. That's not the constraint. There is no constraint. The problem is that the available market is saturating within in the bounds of @Home's conception and definition of itself. I'm saying @Home is doomed as a separate corporation unless they change spots in the way I have stated in the past. If you hold stock, you had better examine and question me very thoroughly about what I've just said.