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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (19959)	4/4/2001 7:29:00 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

John, We are turning into a consumer products company. Why? Because the OEM business seems to be a dwindling source of revenues due to inventory issues and because telecom spending has slowed. OEM sales for bundled flash cards also seems to be a low margin, high volume business that was nice to have, but clearly not the magic that would drive bigtime sales. It is the aftermarket where we have to make headway. It would seem likely that some of the digital camera makers will have to let much of their older products go at deeply discounted prices in order to make room for newer products. The same can be said for MP3 players and PDA's. I still don't believe that bundled sales will be a big winner for us going forward, but inexpensive (discounted) hardware may spur demand for cards. The question remains what the consumer is willing to spend and how much the market's turmoil influences the types of purchases we need to spark card sales. It would seem logical that big ticket items such as vacations, new cars or home renovations will fall off sharply, but would an avid Internet user put off a digital camera purchase if it were under $300 or so? I just am not sure. Also, will teenagers go without newer, high capacity MP3 players if they sell (with flash) under $200 a pop? How about upgrading to the newest Palm device with an SDMC slot for $400 and change? I am not sure how these purchases will be affected, but I guess I am worried about how consumer confidence will swing going forward. I have been saving cash for the last 5 months or so as I have watched my SanDisk investment dwindle. Right now consumer spending will be the key as SanDisk has made a substantial bet on expanding production capacity with the new fab at UMC, the Toshiba JV and the purchase agreements with Hitachi. All of this product has to go somewhere and consumers are going to be the big purchasers, not OEM's. What we need now is for Congress to enact another gift giving holiday. Maybe high school and college graduations will give us a small bump in sales with Summer travel and outdoor activities giving us a second lift??? Aus@stashingcashlikeasquirrel.com

To: John Trader who wrote (19959)	4/4/2001 7:39:38 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 60323

John, I skimmed the annual report... ...and didn't see any information regarding further licensing plans for '987 after the Lexar victory. Why can't plans for '987 licensing be discussed in something as comprehensive as the annual report? Isn't technology licensing a staple in the SanDisk diet? Did I miss something? Aus

To: John Trader who wrote (19959)	4/5/2001 3:48:49 AM
From: Tumbleweed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Re..after reading some good posts by Tw (am I wrong?). I might be :-) Tw

To: John Trader who wrote (19959)	4/5/2001 9:36:31 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

John, the markets hate uncertainty, especially when it concerns already depressed technology stocks. Here you have a potentially serious diplomatic incident in China, a softening of demand for flash memory, potential problems between China and Taiwan, which is one of the major fab sites for flash memory wafers--all the ingredients, in short, needed to force down the price of a stock such as SanDisk. On top of that, you have young, inexperienced portfolio managers (they got the job because they work for less) too afraid to make their own decisions that would be markedly different from those of their equally inexperienced colleagues. Putting all of this in perspective, I do not believe we'll EVER see the price of SNDK at lower levels again, unless all the top managers have heart attacks and the company falls under the influence of the mob. Highly unlikely! As for demand for flash memory, particularly the removable sort, it is highly price elastic. As the price comes down (through gains in efficiency in production as well as improved designs), there will be more and more applications apart from digital photography, music downloads, and hand held computers. The only risk for SNDK is whether its production costs will remain competitive. With a partner like Toshiba, I think that problem is well taken care of. The only other risk is political--whether the Administration adopts policies that would be injurious to the tech sector in the long run. The evenly divided Senate has shown enough power to prevent such an eventuality. So I remain optimistic. Art