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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7507)	4/4/2001 8:10:04 PM
From: Boplicity	Respond to of 10934

Then in two to three weeks we should know about any warnings. Frankly, I think the best possible news would be a loss at CSCO, then a flush would happen. Still all the problems coming from, what seems like every direction, will need to be addressed. I can't wait till earnings season is in full swing. I wish were waiting for earnings three months from now, instead of this month. Looking for a puking market, not a cancerous market. B

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7507)	4/4/2001 8:37:36 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10934

Tech Stock Rebound? Merrill's Watt Shows Maybe Not: Call of Day New York, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- For investors hoping stocks such as Lucent Technologies Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. will rebound from declines of more than 80 percent from their highs, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Thomas Watts has a message: Think again. The Internet infrastructure analyst studied 1,900 technology companies whose stock fell below $10 since 1987. Less than 5 percent rebounded to $15 or more within one year, he said. ``Not many companies come back from below $10,'' Watts said in an interview. Once it falls below that level, it's tougher to attract a lot of buyers, he said. The study suggests that investors, many of whom have profited for more than a decade by buying stocks simply because they've declined, would do well to change tactics in a bear market. ``When you see some of these stocks go to single digits they are there for a reason,'' said David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners Inc. in St. Louis, which manages $200 million. ``Going against the herd in this instance may not be the smartest decision.'' Last year, 437 companies fell below $10, Watts said. Only five, or 1.1 percent, have come back to $15 or more. As of March 28, 921 stocks have fallen into that price-range. Shares of Lucent, the biggest U.S. maker of telephone equipment, today fell $1.10 to $6.75 and at one point traded below the company's 1996 initial public offering price. It slumped below $10 on March 16, after once trading as high as $77.78. Chosen Few Amazon.com Inc., the No. 1 Web retailer, slipped below $10 on Monday and today fell 33 cents to $8.30. It once traded as high as $113. Others now in what Watts calls his ``single digit club'' include Ariba Inc., a maker of Internet-commerce software, which has fallen to $4 from $183.34 in 13 months, and computer- networking equipment maker Foundry Networks Inc., which traded as high as $207.56 and today closed at $6.28. While the odds aren't great, Watts said those companies that do bounce back have posted stellar returns. Of the 84 companies in the study that topped $15 in the year after of slipping below $10, 44 are still trading and above $15, including Ciena Corp., the No. 2 U.S. maker of fiber-optic equipment, and Teradyne Inc. the No. 1 maker of semi-conductor testing equipment, he said. On average, the winners produced total returns of 189 percent from their low and compound annual growth rates of 53 percent, Watts said. ``The question with some of these companies isn't whether to buy, it's when to buy,'' Watts said. Better Odds He also said the percentage of those that climb out of the single digits this year may be higher than in the past because the market is coming out of a ``major downturn.'' After its 1987 crash, 5 percent of companies that fell below $10 came back to top $15 within a year; after the 1990 to 1991 recession, 9 percent rebounded. Of the Internet infrastructure companies he covers that have slipped below $10, the 42-year-old analyst favors Exodus Communications Inc., the No. 1 manager of corporate web sites, and Digex Inc., which runs Web sites for such companies as UAL Corp.'s United Airlines. ``There's certainly a lot of institutions that can't buy many of these stocks because their market capitalization is just too small,'' he said. ``Still, if you buy a $5 stock and it goes to $6 you just made 20 percent, and that's one of the attractions to the bottom fishers.''