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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (5022)	4/4/2001 11:08:32 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

I'm sensing a great deal of frustration on the part of the ever bullish investing public. It has now gotten to the point that people feel they deserve a bounce already. Noone has accepted the degree to which the market overshot sane valuations. And noone has yet to admit this is going to be a long drawn out correction. Nor have many contemplated what a recession really means to valuations from where we are currently in the markets. All that has happened is mutual fund after mutual fund advising their clients to increase their exposure to the market at these bargain basement prices. For the most part these guys were lucky if they reduced their equity allocation by 5% at the top and have now fully recommitted that 5% back into the market. Woohoo, they deserve big bonus checks for their investment accumen. I pulled my bid on JNPR (28 7/8 which would have hit today). Yup, we may get a rally here and I might even chase something, but things are not right in the market yet.

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (5022)	4/4/2001 11:35:28 PM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Respond to of 52237

I'm not too worried about China--I think cooler heads will prevail--but I agree that the "news," specifically DELL reaffirming earnings estimates, is relatively meaningless for any stock except DELL. DELL is a lot different than its competitors, and its success or failure to meet estimates shouldn't have any impact on GLW, JNPR, CIEN, etc. I don't see anything positive about the charts I look at. I do expect a bounce tomorrow, based on the response of the futures to Dell's announcement, but it may not last the day. There are a lot of margin calls out there, PEs are still high relative to non-bubble values, the future is uncertain, and continued slowdown and order cancellations will be felt in the new round of earnings reports starting next week. I sure would like to see data on when these companies that aren't profitable are going to run out of money. I expect to see a lot of failures this summer and next fall.