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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: c.hinton who wrote (74226)	4/5/2001 3:37:43 AM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 99985

Regarding the bear market conditions out there, if it is any consolation, I read where last year, the Naz rebounded 14% in the two days following April 15th (or whichever day taxes were due last year). But last year, the markets were much more vulnerable to tax-cash-raising selling than this year. So we probably won't even see as significant of a decline right before April 16th. Interesting article on that subject, posted earlier here by MrAloha: msnbc.com Also, the earnings warnings period is coming to a close. My guess is that with Reg FD (Fair Disclosure), companies are trying to be forthcoming about bad news AS EARLY AS possible over standard media channels now that they are not allowed to disclose to analysts first in their private coffee clatches. Because of the REG FD-induced need to be forthcoming, we may have seen all that we're going to see in the next day or so as far as earnings warnings, which typically peak during the first few days of the new quarter. Reg FD is going to take much of the mystery out of the REAL earnings reports when they do come out because of the newfound rush to disclose properly ahead of time. The only remaining surprises might be earnings blowouts. But suppose some guy is short on a stock and he gets hosed in a short squeeze on a blowout earnings report... Then you would think he'd be legitimately able to complain that he didn't receive fair disclosure about how GOOD things were for the company! What a dilemma. Anyhow, we will undoubtedly soon see some article in print addressing the fact that Reg FD is going to take a lot of the mystery out of actual earnings reports. Plus it advances the period of volatility (that had normally been associated with the earnings period) up by a few weeks.