Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MeDroogies who wrote (15694)	4/5/2001 7:55:28 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

Hi MeDroogies, Well said.I like your point about M&A.Those conservative companies that sit on hordes of cash can now buy value.Those high flyers that diluted theis stock with M&A every week(Csco comes to mind)have lost their favorite currency(their common stock). Semi equip sector comes to mind for cash rich co.Last cycle Amat bot top of the line lithographer,Kla and Tencor merged,Novellus bot Gasonics - should see some of that in future,although players have been whittled down.Perhaps if it get to the big three - more stability will occur - nah it will always be cyclicle. Bob

To: MeDroogies who wrote (15694)	4/5/2001 4:54:30 PM
From: thesmay	Respond to of 19079

MeDroogies, I agree wholeheartedly with your post. I believe consolidation is right around the corner. The ITM, CDN, and caching market is ripe for it. With stocks like INKT, AKAM, CFLO, RDWR, FFIV, ISLD and a host of others in single digits, now is the time for the ORCL's, SUNW's, and CSCO's of the world to make some acquisitions. This link will show how ORCL plans on getting into this field in a big way. hive4telecom.com;

To: MeDroogies who wrote (15694)	4/17/2001 11:39:51 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

Hi MeDroogies, hopefully I am now off your ignore list, but if not, too bad for me. I agree with most of what you are saying here, except I draw a different conclusion. <<We could be in for trouble if there is a prolonged recession (doubtful)>> When and if you are no longer in doubt, matters may have substantially gone past the point of happiness for most portfolios. But, never mind, as each big boy must take care of his own nest egg of goodies. <<What is really the biggest issue is the IT spending. It may be in a tailspin now, but it can't stay in one for long>> I agree, but recovery of 'maintenace/replacement' level of IT spending will not likely constitute growth, on which folks assign a high P/E. <<How long can you continue to use an underpowered PC or server? How long can you use the current software on it when the newest software is going to improve your productivity?>> I agree, not long, as I demonstrate again and again every 12-18 months, but, again, these replacement purchases at hedonically higher prices does not necessarily constitute growth for the industry, nor any particular company in the industry. Message 15664331 <<First, however, there needs to be consolidation>> I again agree, and a few major entities will be created, much as F, GM, HON, etc carve up a different but mature industry, assigned with tepid P/Es. Such is the grand cycle of any technological development, now speeded up many Ghz. Major entities competing against equally major entities simply mean the hurt is more when anything goes wrong, if the absolute size of the pie fails to grow as before. The size of the pie will fail to grow as fast as before simply because the industry is maturing. Further, consolidation has its own unique set of risks which the software industry executives have certainly not shown particularly brilliant skill at. Again, it all comes down to valuation. <<From a corporate investment standpoint, this market is the best one any cash-rich company could hope for. That will eventually spill over into the investors' hands>> Cash rich is backward looking, when cash cost are depressed, end-user market frenzied, investors money burned. Free cash flow would be forward looking, when folks are nursing deep and deepening wounds, cash costs are rising, product pricing declining, and absolute "new-add" customer count effectively zero. Dividend will be necessary for any mature industry, and that will be necessary as a spill into investors' hands, but gad, a new concept. Chugs, Jay DISCLOSURE: Yes, I still hold my 200 shares of ORCL as a subscription to the annual report and as a news clipping marker for my MS Money program.