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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2806)	4/5/2001 8:03:02 AM
From: MoneyPenny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

This thread gets a mention in the Wall Street Journal, Heard on the Street today, April 5. interactive.wsj.com I've been lurking here for a while and find the posts to be of higher quality than most other threads. Well, back to the shadows. Sharon

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2806)	4/5/2001 8:08:47 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 74559

Thanks for that in-depth analysis of US/China relations! And your take on the potential for a big gold bull in China.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2806)	4/5/2001 9:01:35 AM
From: Hoa Hao	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Excellent post Jay. There is some thought in some quarters that mainland China might break into 3 separate sections. What are your thoughts on that??

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2806)	4/5/2001 10:02:26 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I ask a few simple and rhetorical questions and you give me a response that would put a CIA analyst to shame... <VBG> However, I concur that this situation seems more to be the result of an internal debate within China, where the various factions, and especially the military, vy for greater influence. But it just struck me as extremely risky for Jiang to stoke the fires of extreme nationalism. Especially when China's economic growth is so dependent on the $80 billion in exports to the US, representing 8-10% of overall GDP in China. I assume they are going to keep the plane. That's pretty much a given. But I would have to ask how the Chinese would respond were the US to detain 24 of their people without being able to speak to their embassy staff? They'd throw a fit, just as they did with the Belgrade bombing (despite the fact that their retransmissions of Serb military communications from there is what put it on the US target list in the first place). And now we see them interrogating these US folks today creating a further escalation, and denying them US representation from the embassy. I'm just having a hard time figuring out what they have to gain by escalation. But it's obvious to one and all that we know what they are putting at risk. And since the US is getting the raw deal in all this because China gets to sell more to us than we sell to them, they risk making a "Made in China" label mighty scarce on these shores. Especially when powerful media names like Bill O'Reilly start calling for boycotts against Chinese goods. And the military should realize that they only get the new toys for their boys so long as the Chinese economy remains vibrant. Btw, I think you have some interesting thoughts on Chinese desire for gold. It would seem to suggest they don't trust the paper currency, or their economic prospects. And again.. thank you for your excellent and well thought out response. Regards, Ron

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2806)	4/5/2001 10:50:02 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Good post. A few simple comments: 1-A 'shooting' war I cannot see. No one could really win and the US needs China's markets going forward. 2-On political reform: China will do, in the end, what makes as many citizens as possible happy and prosperous. That is necessary to survive. It will take a while to get there and it may be unlike any other system but it will inevitably arrive. Much has been gleaned from the experience of the old USSR IMO. 3-My children will be enrolled in Chinese language school. I always thought it would be beneficial but having been to China, I now view it as a required 'advantage' to ensure their future competitiveness. From a cultural point of view it is nice for my family but honestly that is only a minor consideration. regards Kastel

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2806)	4/5/2001 11:59:40 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Wow - good one Jay. A welcome departure from potshots at permabulls standing frozen in the rushing glare of thousands of headlights streaming past them... ... I would have thought they were an endangered species. Yesterday the topic threads were screaming in silent agony. The posts vile. Then today... In days past a 5% pop would be cause for the bulls to be whooping and romping... but the threads are quiet still... except for glee when the aggressively bearish such as those from NY City are banished. This is not a good sign. In 9 days I will release much of my portion of the well recognized "cash on the sidelines". Only it won't go to slowing down the race of the horsemen to the single digit wire. No, it will go to Uncle Sam. There to pay the salaries of countless faceless functionaries who in turn will pretend they are spending it on good causes. Like expensive stuff to put in expensive planes. One must wonder how wide or narrow this thinking spreads. Ponder perhaps 150 B$ income taxes owing, not deducted at source. Although I sense this weight lifting from the markets. Which is a good thing. My patience with no-growing but cash generating instruments is thin. I would rather watch grass grow than stare at my portfolio. What good is instant on-line real-time streaming quotes when the value remains steady to the third decimal point? Instant access to information that is not time sensitive... There is less value in that than many of the new economy wanted to believe. And more. Vastly more. Ok, so what is my point? I am not sure. Just that I am, at the moment, weary of thinking bullish or bearish or anything in betweenish. Time for the market to take a breather. I think I shall enjoy the rest of today. It is a fine spring day. The market shows nice green too. Remember, I am a marker for my generation. We all tend to think similarly. Anyone want to buy a used SUV? John.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2806)	4/5/2001 12:22:39 PM
From: Keith Monahan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

US plane pumped Chinese plane, without intention to knock it down, but playing none the less, otherwise foolish, as the second fighter plane is more than adequate to bring the spy plane down Regardless of who caused the contact, the U.S. commander made the wrong decision landing in Chinese territory. He should have: a) Tried to make it elsewhere (after all, they were in the South China sea not the middle of the Pacific ocean). If the Chinese fighter then chose to shoot the plane down.... well I guess we would have a different mess today. b) If they couldn't make it elsewhere the pilot should have ditched in the water. Enjoy your posts. Have a good trip to Thailand - have many friends there - need to get back soon for some good food and drink. p.s. - Do you know who won the Sevens rugby in HK this year?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2806)	4/5/2001 2:18:23 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 74559

Jay, thanks a lot for a very pleasant read. I have wondered around quite a few BBS in the last couple of days on the Internet. Your post is yet THE most intelligent, thorough, and objective one. Have a nice trip.