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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Lacelle who wrote (19963)	4/5/2001 11:45:47 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

After exciting JDSU a year ago last Jan-Feb (2000), I just bought back on Ap 3. at approx. 15.25 (actually bought in CDN and do not know the exact exchange at the time). Why buy in now? A number of factors entered into my decision. Obviously, I remain a firm believer that the FO build-out is FAR from over. I also think JDSU will continue to show strong earnings growth, even if diminished from recent times. The main purchase-factor, however, is the current P/E. According to the latest ValueLine estimates, JDSU is presently trading in with a P/E close to 20 (it was under that when I bought). (Note: ValueLine normalises data--e.g., excludes nonrecurring losses/amortisation of acquisitions.) My assumption: When the business cycle gets through this period--maybe even including a recession--JDSU will continue to command a P/E of 20 to 30. Yep, I think there is a potential down-side P/E of 15 or lower if we get a really deep recession with extreme pessimisim by Mr. Market so I've factored that into my mental calculations. However, so long as the FO build-out continues, an average P/E of between 20 to 30 is a very conservative estimate for the next 5 years. This adds up to good risk for me; more upside potential vs downside risk. Hope I don't have to eat crow on this. Hate the taste of crow. Hank Stamper