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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (45125)	4/5/2001 2:21:14 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Crazy market. I don't buy it. I was going to watch, but this bounce doesn't add up IMO. FWIW, I just initiated an AMAT short play at $42 (1/2 position at this time - if we continue to $44, I'll add the other half). AdvocateDevil

To: michael97123 who wrote (45125)	4/5/2001 2:26:34 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

More OT - China Correct. We are in complete agreement regarding containment. I was drawing a historical parallel between the two sets of bogus territorial claims - and our eventual response to the first. This is the Bush administration's first sticky foreign policy "crisis." As such, it will set the precedent for the future ones, and should be handled with that in mind. IMO, though admittedly amateur, there should be no apology or admission of culpability from the US. There should be a dialed-up effort using non-military sanctions until the sailors are released. We have a broad spectrum of possibilities: arms sales to Taiwan, withdrawal of MFN trade status, veto of WTO membership, non-support of 2008 Olympic venue, diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, trade boycotts or tariffs, and so forth. Unfortunately, the higher the Chinese dial this incident, they stand to lose (as well as gain) significantly more "face," and thus will become more intransigent. We're still in a reactive mode here - the Chinese have the initiative. - Mitch