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To: im a survivor who wrote (35297)4/6/2001 8:41:27 AM
From: Poet  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 35685
 
The payrolls number has just been released and was lower than expected, causing the futures to weaken considerably. It appears that the economy is heading into recession.

Please be careful with long positions. Take your profits, cut your losses.

That was a damn short bearmarket rally. -ng



To: im a survivor who wrote (35297)4/6/2001 5:10:27 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
Certainly you don't think the bear will still be here twenty years from now<ggg>

No, I do not. I think it could easily last 2-5 more years though. Who knows how long? If it's 1/3-1/2 the preceding bull, as older and wiser commentators than I have suggested, and as one can see by reviewing bull runs and the bears that follow, then we are looking at something like 6-9 years (based on 1982 as the start of the bull).

I was reacting to your permabullish statement:

Not gonna sell anything else......will hold for the next 20 years and see where sunw, jdsu qcom, atml, sndk and etc....are then.

This strikes me as an unsuitable time to be so inflexible.

My opinion is that you'll get better prices down the road, and even if you don't, you'll get a more stress-free entry. You are picking the bottom and that's heroic, but not a high odds gamble.

Cheers



To: im a survivor who wrote (35297)4/6/2001 5:16:54 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
By the way, I think everyone can see that over the long run stocks go up. It's quite obvious.

What is less obvious, but more crucial, is that over the long run markets, and the variables they rely on (e.g., credit) tend to move around a mean of sorts. We are far, very far, from that mean.