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To: GraceZ who wrote (90607)4/5/2001 6:12:42 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
>>The real problem with people that are either bearish or bullish is that they take a stance and then they look for things that validate that stance<<

very true. i see this all the time.

i do my very best to let data tell me what to do rather than make data report the way i want. one is real and one is manipulation. reality *always* wins in the long run.

that is why i agree that alan.com's gdp/productivity manipulation is wrong. what did you think of grandpa's economic report?

here's what the data i see says.

1. peg waaaaaay out of wack with history - especially in light of collapsing es.
2. no bubble has ever been sustained and they all end badly, very badly. more often than not, pes end up well below historical norms before a recovery takes place.
3. debt growth and dis-savings are huge and can't continue in their current direction forever.
4. money is being printed at a ridiculously absurd rate.

everyone is free to reach their own conclusion. :-)



To: GraceZ who wrote (90607)4/5/2001 6:47:37 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Fear is a an important motivator for me. Also, I actually enjoy working out alternate scenarios like bullish counts.

You make good points.



To: GraceZ who wrote (90607)4/5/2001 7:01:06 PM
From: NOW  Respond to of 436258
 
Yep, its true. M3 is bullish, commercials covering is bullish, and the possibility that we avert a recession here is short to medium term bullish. What lies in store if we do avert it, is anything but bullish, and the XAU and bonds are the "tell"