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To: GraceZ who wrote (90681)	4/5/2001 7:31:41 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

>>Prices in stocks persisted in spite of all those things and now you site them as reasons that the market can't go up. If they didn't matter then WHY do they matter now?<< they always matter. 100% of mania markets end in disaster. that is a fact (name one that didn't). did it go from euphoria to disaster in 3.5 nanoseconds? of course not. that is silly. did i say stocks can't go up? absolutely not. however, proper investing is not about possibilities. it is about probabilities. the end result has an 100% occurrence. the past is often the best gauge of the future. if you have something better, let's here it. ps - don't use alan.com's bogus productivity numbers, either ;-) >>The reasons you site for the decline are assigned are after the fact<< grace, you may be unaware of what i've been saying for the last 4 years. i'm saying the same things now. EXACTLY. if i'm right now, i was right then - BEFORE the fact. you assume an awful lot and pretend it is fact. just b/c you are unable to put things together doesn't mean others can't. >>If I were you I'd be looking for any and all signs that the economy is stronger than you think.<< you are correct and i do. i look for sustainable savings rates. it isn't there. i look for reasonable credit levels. it isn't there. i look for the new economy to pull us through tough times and all i see is alan.com printing more money. i look for reasonable valuations relative to historical levels and it isn't there (there are exceptions, however, i'm speaking in gen'l). i look for true gdp growth above historical standards. it isn't there. i look at many companies set up to supply goods to dotcom companies that no longer exist. i look and see reports of 1k-5k people being laid off daily when i can't recall seeing any for a number of years (i'm sure some were there, but not many). >>You give me reasons, yet you can't defend them with any amount of rigor. I'm bullish yet I could present the bearish case stronger than you could.<< this from a person who posted 2 or 3 notes about "chained dollars" and you didn't even understand the context - yet still vigorously argued a point that was never under question. ;-) it is truly your world ;-)

To: GraceZ who wrote (90681)	4/5/2001 10:29:39 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<You misunderstood what I was saying. It didn't matter to the market two years ago and you think it matters now. Prices in stocks persisted in spite of all those things and now you site them as reasons that the market can't go up. If they didn't matter then WHY do they matter now? You didn't answer that question. > Grace, to be fair, this really is a lame point... there are all sorts of phenomena that persist despite their certainty of demise.. in the physical world let alone a world that includes subjectivity. <. It's intellectually lazy to only consider arguments that bolster your prejudice and dangerous besides. > Actually IMO it is a waste of time in a life that is already too short to go beating the bushes for signs that economic laws proven over the centuries won't persist. This is especially true given observations by many market historians that all important changes in major market directions [equities, etc] are chronicled in the main street media. Here are the facts: 1.)Economists have been surprised for years that this expansion has lasted so long. 2.)The expansion is now recognized even by CNBS as having reached "bubble" proportions... [Despite BGR's assertion, LOL]. 3.)The bubble has burst as being painfully chronicled daily in the telecom equity and junk markets... 4.)Bubbles never just go away... there is a painful contraction of proportions bigger than 'normal' recessions. So why would anyone even consider looking for bullish signs untill we see the inevitable obvious recession events chronicled... ?? DAK