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To: carl a. mehr who wrote (131728)	4/5/2001 8:36:47 PM
From: Paul Chesser	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Humble Carl, I've never posted on this board--don't have anything to contribute, but I really appreciate your posts. pc

To: carl a. mehr who wrote (131728)	4/5/2001 10:19:47 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

<Have we seen the bottom of the stock market? I sure hope so! My portfolio jumped by +26.8%. > The umpteen million dollar question ! Or is today's action a dead cat bounce or a bear market trap ? Those investing in 90's have no experience of bear markets. My memory of markets goes back to 1973. End of the each bear market was defined by A. Universal pessimism - We are almost there. Practically all stock categories have been ravaged. B. Investors sitting on the sidelines waiting for the carnage to end. The investor money just piles up. -- This condition is satisfied today. All the 401k and institutional money is on the sidelines. C. Then the daily slide in stock values was followed by a mighty jump on huge volumes. This pattern continues for days. Today's jump reminds me of those reversals. -- So is this the end for the bears ? If todays pattern is repeated over the next few days, the bear will indeed be dead ! So I will keep my fingers crossed. Unfortunately even if the bear market is over, it will be at least a year or two before our net worth is back to what it was last year. PS. The other gorilla Cisco is in bad shape. My rumors and sources tell me that Cisco's situation is worse than what is public knowledge. Consequently Cisco will be forced to lay off 11000 people as opposed to the expected number of 5000.

To: carl a. mehr who wrote (131728)	4/6/2001 9:37:52 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Carl - re: "Paul and All, Have we seen the bottom of the stock market? " Nope. Not yet. Paul

To: carl a. mehr who wrote (131728)	4/12/2001 7:00:50 PM
From: Saturn V	Respond to of 186894

Hi Carl, Ref < Have we seen the bottom of the stock market? > Todays San Jose Mercury News columns discusses the same issue, and does not give a clear cut answer either. www0.mercurycenter.com My take is that "No one rings a bell when the market hits the bottom". The last weeks advance sure raises hopes, but the lack of volume tells me that too many people are still on the sidelines and are afraid to jump in with both feet. Thus the market could nose dive again. Perhaps the the next few weeks will raise the confidence for a sustainable advance. The chip stock earnings new guidance will be disclosed over the next ten days, and may resolve the issue. The market looks out six months and more, and if gets comfortable with the outlook, the bear will be slain for good. The PC inventories look lean, but the disaster in networking and communications casts a terrible shadow for the chip business. Within a week I believe Cisco will finally open its kimono, and disclose the extent of its personnel cutbacks and its financial mess. That will help everyone sort out the future chip demand. So we will revisit the question in a few weeks. However the best bargains may be history by then.