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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (8088)	4/5/2001 10:09:37 PM
From: GregS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Tom, nice timing on your bounce call, I believe you called this one sometime last week, you even called the day. Congrats on your good work. Looks to me like the rally continues tomorrow, there are some real believers out there thinking we've hit a bottom and are starting a big rally. Personally, I think we had the big rally today, but there are alot of rookie shorts out there stuck in positions who haven't covered yet, they will likely keep this thing from falling back too quickly. Many are hoping the networkers shrug off the warnings tonight, they may shrug it off for a few days, but some of these networkers just aren't going to be around. They built infrastructures that depend on much high revenues than they will be obtaining, so they continue to bleed cash and will have a tough time raising capital in these markets. They will likely be bought by bigger fish at levels much lower than todays prices. I may start more shorts in the morning, don't know yet, just have a baby position in CCMP, I traded this one with you once before, it likes to squeeze for a few days, then it just seems to run out of gas and falls like a rock. Its awfully thin, but that doesn't matter much in the longer run. I expect to hit it tomorrow at some price over 50

To: Tom Hua who wrote (8088)	4/6/2001 9:07:43 AM
From: KaiserSosze	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

So Tom, Cisco drops out of the Fiber Optic market; SCMR gets slammed stating lower orders and spending by Telcos; CIEN rated outperform this morning by Morgan Stanley (see note below), but cites competitive issues in 2001. Sooooo, put it all together, and is this viewed as a positive for CORV, or a negative?? Your thoughts are always appreciated. Kaiser 08:29 ET CIENA Corp (CIEN) 38 11/16: Morgan Stanley reinstates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating and $60 price target after working on the Ciena/Cyras merger. Morgan and others optimistic about Ciena's optical switch potential given Cisco's abandonment of the market and Sycamore's technical problems. Note does sound a bit cautious, however, citing new competitive hurdles in 2001 and mentioning potential downside to the stock of $5-10.