A.L. Reagan thankyou for openly sharing your line of thinking, most people that short, don't openly admit they are short, on a message boards, that are for the most part, focused on the long side.
"I agree with your analysis. Shorted AVNX today @ $12.26. An 80 P/E (giving the benefit of the doubt on the $.15 eps) in this environment doesn't cut it. "
I got hurt yesterday, because just before the open, I let alot of welling meaning, and far more experienced,and skilled traders, talked me out of buying into, what they thought was an unsistainable rally. What a sad mistake.
I had followed Avanex patiently down, from the low 20s, to make a long trade, and also, buy some shares, for my long term account. These traders hadn't followed Avanex blow by blow, on the longside. In retrospect, I don't think they were, as on top of, the nearing reasonable PE aspect, as I was.
Following the trades of one network equiptment, tech stock closely,down from the 20s, over the past so many weeks, served to help me to feel the pulse, of where the long side of the mkt was at, as Avanex hit a low in the $8 ranged.
Following Avanex's struggle, to find a firm footing, sharpend my focus, and clued me into the change in mkt psycology, seeing how Ciena, and the mkt, reacted positively to the cisco and dell news.
The traders where I hang, discounted, as insignificant, the cisco news to throw in the towel on one area of thier networking business, leavin open an opportunity to ciena, not to mention, the positive earnings in Dell. They missed the change in psycology
Today is another day, I will follow the futures up or stand aside. The other traders that got on my case, go long and short. I just go long, partly because, I don't want,to be part of holding back, good companies stocks.
Another reason I just go long, is so I don't confuse my perspective, on the long story. Yesterday, I messed myself up, listening to people, that were still more focused, on side shortside, however on other days thier perspective, has saved me from going long, in a mkt that has wanted to sell off.
The reaction to extremes negative earnings, will be interesting. You may have made a well timed short. A.L., of course I was hoping the mkt, would start discounting, such warnings, but that may be to optomistic, at this point still.
sorry I don't have time to make corrections, spelling ect. |
