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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (5187)	4/6/2001 12:47:01 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

SO- I totally agree... Let me add one other intriguing scenario (Remember, traders should be "divergent thinkers"...able to keep 2 diametrically opposing arguments in mind at all times, while still able to function. I'm still working on that last part <G>) Anyway, let's suppose today DID signify some sort of bottom....Who's to say that the BIG BOYS didn't get caught out by the gap (and were looking for the, ahem, "crap")...and have been caught by surprise. It happened on Jan. 3rd. So what happened hence? They brought the rally right back to where is started....shook the weak hands....so they could climb aboard....and THEN they took it to 2894 or so... Given, today, likely you had massive hedge fund short-covering...surely, some got left in the dust... So, I propose there is an alternate scenario (remember, I'm trying to maintain this divergence thing...)...That is, that we did hit bottom, but we need to go back ANYWAY (to the previous levels). Even more reason to feel comfortable w/upcoming down scenario. BTW- I actually believe your line of thinking is correct, but the above is fun to play with....for, I simply can't believe the breakaway gap (this morning), "to the moon" Alice scenario....too much resistance overhead (as you stated)...and way too many bulls calling "bottom"... BTW- I'm still feeling snuggly in my shorts (oops, too much information)...let's see if Friday changes that...I'll gladly bail if wrong..

To: StockOperator who wrote (5187)	4/6/2001 1:33:18 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I hope the thread doesn't mind me poking my nose in... been very busy lately and unable to keep up with the rate of posting on my favorite threads to read. I just posted this elsewhere, but thought I'd throw it into the conversation here for comments. PS, I'm not suggesting that this is 'the' bottom at all. But it may well be tradeable rally and not just a one or two day wonder. Given how stretched the NDX is, and even the SPX had become, a move up would not be a big surprise. PSPS Given that I'm normally much more comfortable on the short side, is my viewpoint a contrary contrary indicator? >> For the past few days we've been sensing the market building tension for a move up. Is it 'the' bottom, only time will tell, but I think the framework is in place for some more gains on the long side. It seems ridiculous in the face of the daily bars, predominantly down lately as they have been, but a few of us have been trading increasingly on the long side - intraday scalping to be sure but the setups were appearing. A bit of a hint to us I think, as long as our minds are open enough to consider all diabolical price action possibilities ;) ottographs.com The gap up was pretty surprising, and I'm sure during the ascending triangle formed intraday during the morning that even more were surprised that it resolved up - what we would expect in an uptrend. Ken - in your note you mention a wedge - I only see the ascending triangle (I've marked it out) and the consolidation pattern resolved as one would expect in a strong uptrend. What do you think? The chart is telling us that at this point there is a strong trend in place in intraday time frames -- you can even see that in the above 5 min swing chart as the upswings tend to be longer than the down swings, but its even more striking in higher time frames - as the 45 min Nasdaq futures did not even form one downswing all day. When NDX/SPX are above the 45EMA we should be more inclined to buy above retracements, and only inclined to short on a failed test of top at the end of a trend. So, given the tone of the day and the chart structure in front of us, it would not be surprising then to see this move continue on up after some sort of retracement. I can envision 1544-ish being the nearest point of likely resistance; we can see if price manages to move up through and make that area into support. We'll just approach tomorrow with an open mind as always and trade what is in front of us... <<