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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (89779)	4/6/2001 10:38:31 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

What a difference a day makes ~ ... the NAZ is stil manic-depressive imo I think the SI Oilpatch Thread sentiment meter - correctly signaled a trading bottom buy at OSX 104 for Oilpatch traders - but; for me it's far, far from a "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof" environment - as those days folks are H-I-S-T-O-R-Y... Charlie Maxwell now calling for Oil to quickly retrace to $20 & NG to fall sub $4 and he won't be far off on either imho.... $18-$22 crude & $3.50-$4.25 NG seems to be a reasonable 2H trading range for both commodities UNLESS we get a positive turn in the US economy. Also; as long as Oil inventory numbers are over 300 M Boe - the OSX isn't going to 165ish - and if we cross over 310-315 M boe; the cycle is over for shareprices & the exodus begins. I merely hope that we can sneak one last strong "late cycle" Oilpatch Rally in here between Q1 & Q2 Tech reporting. A "call" levered move from OSX 104 to 120 will suit me just fine; a move back to resistance of 130-135 would be celebratory & if we break to new highs - ride the move & trade purely on technicals - ignore ALL positive fundamentals & EXIT and TAKE Profits - take the money & run at the first sign of exhaustion. I think the strong seasonal trading patterns point to a potential August high & exit point to this coming OSX leg. In the NAZ; I think once Cisco warns/reports - that the NAZ will reach an interim bottom & finally put in a strong rally within what will still be a sustained Bear Market - but; that Tech bounce rally along with the Fed Cut in May; should bring lots of money off the sidelines & give us a nice Late April to August window for the OSX to mount one last strong rally... at least that's the "read" I have here. Tech/Naz-wise; I think we have a lot of valuation multiple contraction yet to go. A reasonable/fair valuation for the NAZ imo - given the slowing global economy & the still lack of any clear positive guidance is somewhere between 1150 - 1350 imo and I think we hit that range sometime before Q3 reporting in techland. I also think that the OSX has lost lots of ancilary investors - the non-hard core Oilpatch/Energy crowd & we need them to remain; as they invest due to the earnings visibility, safety & valuations found here & we'll need the return of the Mo-Mo players as well; to go to new highs. Tech can both take the Oilpatch down along with it & also suck out the mo-mo capital to cap our potential upside if it turns & rallies. Imho - any Oilpatch trading strategies must take both of those realities into consideration. The final shoe of this Bear Market to drop is going to be the US Dollar. I think we could very easily see a DOW 7750, NAZ 1150 type of bottom before this Bear is finished. Still time to be patient, keep cash, be a trading Pig & not a Hog; buy gold & silver on weakness & be looking to sell into strength on the next Oilpatch rally leg - hopefully just in time to cherry-pick the ashen ruins of NAZland...and simultaneously short the Oilpatch hi-flyers at the rollover of the cycle. ... that's my plan