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To: Bill/WA who wrote (90831)	4/7/2001 10:07:40 PM
From: Tim McCormick	Respond to of 436258

Odds of an intermeeting Fed ease moved over 50% on Friday. The trading pop from such an event should be very short lived. A more significant bottom cannot occur until the equity and debt capital formation cycle is reestablished. Given that the techno-productivity new era was mostly access to cheap capital, it follows that HumptyDumpty can't be put together again until the capital market spigot opens. Watch the IPO and junk bond calender. I believe it will take an historically large merger transaction or very compelling investment mania theme to turn things around. the Fed funds rate did not end this mania, and the Fed funds rate won't get it rolling again. In other words, if MSFT buys WorldCom look out.