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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (35430)	4/6/2001 3:54:40 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

revising my own perception gradually of when economic bottom is reached last Christmas I believed it would be August-Sept timeframe of 2001 but with Fed so far behind the curve and with economy suffering much worse with overcapacity than I imagined and with "2nd half Recovery" nonsense gradually being dismissed and with layoff news accelerating and with Europe and Asia deteriorating overall and with bank lending become MORE STRICT, not less, defying the Fed's instructions ...... I think the economic bottom is not foreseeable at this point the Fed can talk responsibly, and (former) Governors can talk about aggressive moves but the fact is that we are seeing acceleration in the decline, not improvement bankruptcies, bad bank loan portfolios, layoffs, all this is worsening Q1 should show GDP at between plus 0.3% and minus 0.3% Q2 should show the NAKED TRUTH, negative GDP Q3 might actually begin to get ugly, with minus 1.5% GDP so I think the economic bottom will be at Christmas 2001 at the earliest and probably not until Spring 2002 which translates to Dow, S&P, NazComp bottoms by August-October Dow at 7700 S&P at 850 NazComp at 1300 Europe and Asia will enter a recession before we do, as in SOON and my mantra in closing: "with a couple dozen bigname techstocks in single digits" layoffs coming, another big round of them they are in the newspaper almost every day / JW