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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (91199)	4/6/2001 5:44:51 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<So it is money made that determines who is right and who is wrong? Using that logic would lead one to conclude all the guys who made money on the speculative upside were correct about valuations for 10 years and the bears right for one. > First of all, I don't know where you get 10 years, but that's beside the point. Yes, of course anyone bullish for the past 10 years have been correct over someone who's been bearish for that time?? What would you think? The point of transition from investing to speculating [let's just say for sake of argument this occured on the date of Greenspans "irrational exuberence" speech] is not what I'm after... IMO it has occured. Similarily, I'm not out to wonder about the exact date we slipped into recession, I don't care, I'm just watching and waiting and what I see points to something more scary each day, not getting better. When I see signs of a reversal I'll worry about that then. <That can't possibly be the only determinant.> Well, you could use the S&P, or an average of all stock averages vs other investments... but other than that, what else would you use?? I'm not hanging out at some party to pontificate about what right and wrong means... I'm an investor. One of the wonderful things about this somethimes dull, dreary, passtime called investing is that the outcome is easily measured. Look, if we go through a horrific recession and the S&P keeps going up [say because of the "demographics"], then those bulls [esp. buying on that theory] are right... not the bears! Anyone who's studied history of these things OR human nature know that won't happen. << Maybe it is the only one that you would acknowledge. > What would you use? DAK