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To: Zardoz who wrote (67252)	4/6/2001 8:25:12 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116741

One reason I feel that these markets have not yet fully bottomed has to do with earnings. Corporate earnings for the first and second quarter of this year will be some of the worst within the last five years. The market has anticipated poor earnings for the first half of 2001 and that is the major reason for the sell-off we have witnessed. However, the market has not yet priced in poor earnings for the third and fourth quarter of this year. I have tremendous doubts that we will witness a recovery of earnings this year at all. If earnings do not strengthen by the second half of the year another severe leg down will take place. Whether earnings are able to strengthen by the end of the year is totally dependent upon whether a recession can be avoided, which, in all honestly, I find extremely unlikely. Another reason that the markets may not yet have bottomed is because of investor sentiment. Several firms that poll individual and institutional investors indicate market participants are split evenly into those with a bullish, bearish and neutral outlook. Right now IMO there is simply not enough bearish sentiment in the polls to indicate that the markets are ready to re-bound. All of this rampant talk about a "Bottom" is kind of scary because I think we are a long long way from a "Bottom."