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To: mishedlo who wrote (12388)	4/6/2001 11:34:19 PM
From: pbull	Respond to of 13572

One word: Frustration. That's how you feel, because you were/are correct, and yes, options premiums are out of sight because of the severe up/down moves. This week was a classic example of what we can expect in the future, in my opinion. I'm not an options trader, in part because during a market like this, you have to constantly monitor everything _ everything. That is why I have resigned myself, for the most part at least, to "welcoming" the recession. I've looked at some bear funds, such as Comstock, where shareholders should be dancing in the streets, but they aren't really doing that well in a market that's worse than anyone has seen in more than a decade. Which again shows the importance of preparation and focusing on your best ideas. For example, I knew last Christmas that Radio Shack was, essentially, giving satellite dishes away. Did I short them, or their sat dish maker? Of course not. Dumb. So, what's next? On TV, the guests on Nightly Biz Report spoke at some length about continued strength in construction (which only adds to the commercial real estate glut, in my jaded view). So what is the absolutely best way to short construction? I have no idea. But there are any number of stocks that SHOULD decline a bunch in a sour real estate market, which I believe is as inevitable as a hot August. PB

To: mishedlo who wrote (12388)	4/6/2001 11:51:32 PM
From: pbull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Just briefly, let's look at C. The Fed is in aggressive easing mode, and this "rate-sensitive" issue is nearing a new low. In the financial sector, there are dozens of players that have weaker fundamentals than C. So, which one is going to go down the most? Of course, I don't know. And in tech, it's even better to still be a bear because, what no one _ no one _ that I know of has said, yet, is that a whole bunch of companies are going to "restate" their previous earnings. Not just guide lower. Restate. And lose all credibility with the Street. And their stocks will go to single digits. Or worse. Inevitable. Just inevitable. PB