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To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (123165)	4/7/2001 3:40:33 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

"BTW SCMR's warning was worse than ARBA's!!! That ought to make some people think." This has been the story for telcoms for some time now -- there is huge demand but the competitive dynamics make the industry highly unattractive. Anybody who looks at companies and not the competitive landscape has no business talking about "the fundamentals". Obviously I am not referring to you :) but using this as a general statement.

To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (123165)	4/7/2001 9:39:59 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>What worries me about optics is that the performance of the equipment doubles, and presumably the price of the equipment halves, every nine months or so. So if the demand for new capacity plateaus, maybe the equipment makers' revenues halve every nine months or so too. The optics guys could end up innovating their businesses into oblivion. << It is not that bleak, business wise. As performance increases, the required technical expertise also increases to the point of putting most vendors out of business. At that point a few (3 to 5) winners will have an oligopoly to themselves. But that would be a mature market. I think in all these industries, one has to estimate the size of the mature market, and see if the market caps of the suppliers are reasonable for that market. Since casual speculators cannot have firsthand information about this subject, they have to rely on stories of analysts, etc.... And that I think is the basic cause of the extreme volatility.

To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (123165)	4/7/2001 2:51:16 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>What worries me about optics is that the performance of the equipment doubles, and presumably the price of the equipment halves, every nine months or so. So if the demand for new capacity plateaus, maybe the equipment makers' revenues halve every nine months or so too. The optics guys could end up innovating their businesses into oblivion.<< no worries. alan.com call innovating into oblivion "economic productivity." everyone will be in soup lines, but our productivity will be HOT!