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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (91338)	4/7/2001 9:43:24 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

We have done some simulations and are convinced that the 10-day moving average, with which you are giving so much weight, prematurely triggered repeatedly all the way down in the 1929-32 side, as the most important counter example of its effectiveness. You know trying to catch failing knives can be very dangerous to one's wealth, so what's your hurry? I'd love to see his backtested readings. Egggs...celent...they'll keep buying the dip all the way down based on an incomplete history of the indicator.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (91338)	4/7/2001 10:44:20 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Yes! Thanks for that Joel.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (91338)	4/7/2001 2:25:35 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

roflmao! nice....

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (91338)	4/7/2001 3:15:23 PM
From: Andrew G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Joel: Let us know if he replies. Jack Welch of GE is calling a spade a spade. I'm more inclined to believe him than the financial media. We are no where near a bottom. dailynews.yahoo.com We are at a bottom when we can see a way back up. There are no solid catalysts in place but there is plenty of room for Institutions and Hedge funds to throw around a few hundred billion on a daily basis to keep markets turbulent on the way down.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (91338)	4/7/2001 4:24:23 PM
From: XBrit	Respond to of 436258

Thanks! That's very good info... agrees with my highly sophisticated wild speculation that the Arms thing was a false signal. Other random excellent reasons to short-and-hold the oh-so-resilient Dow right now: 1) the chart of the NON-tech part of the SP500: (the teaser is non-subscription and shows the chart) grantsinvestor.com It tripled from 94-98 while the GDP went up only about 40%. And IT HASN'T EVEN STARTED TO SERIOUSLY DROP YET. 2) the R-word indicator economist.com 3) long-term data on stock mutual fund money flows: (see 4/3/01 commentary if the link doesn't work) comstockfunds.com Once the outflows start, they typically continue for YEARS.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (91338)	4/7/2001 8:23:38 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Another interesting thought. I'm sure Hays will have seen this challenge by now. I'll be really interested to see whether he uses it for wiggle room next week... if he's doubting his own magic signal.