To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (91465 ) 4/7/2001 7:42:38 PM From: stomper Respond to of 436258 Ariba's Ugly Warning Is Bad News for the Economy By Jim Seymour Special to TheStreet.com Originally posted at 5:10 PM ET 4/3/01 on RealMoney.com Ariba (ARBA:Nasdaq - news)? Remember them? Look, this is the third time around on this column. I wrote one version late Monday night to run early Tuesday. Then I tore it up early and rewrote it. Then I tore that up and did it again. I know, I know -- it would be better if this one had appeared early Tuesday. But both the importance attached to Ariba's warning Monday afternoon and the chaos of this awful Tuesday in the market have forced me to keep rewriting. Let me put it simply: I believe you simply cannot overstate the importance, the utter badness, of Ariba's warning. And the importance of this warning, its implications, not just for Ariba's future, but to the prospects for a recovery in B2B stocks, in supply-chain-management stocks. How bad was it? Instead of a nickel in earnings for the second quarter, a loss of 20 cents. Quarterly revenue of around $90 million, half what was forecast. Revenue down 47% from the first quarter. A third of the work force, or 700 people, cut loose. A huge $50 to $75 million more in write-offs from real estate commitments no longer needed. And its deal to buy Agile (AGIL:Nasdaq - news) ended -- a deal even Ariba executives had been saying was absolutely critical to Ariba's future. It could get worse? How? Just listen to the words of Ariba's chief executive officer, Keith Krach, Monday afternoon: "The exchange business ... has seen a dramatic falloff, and we don't think there'll be a recovery in marketplace revenue." Read that again. Not "very little visibility." Not "no direction." Not "no recovery for two quarters." But "we don't think there'll be a recovery..."