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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (12404)	4/7/2001 10:55:01 PM
From: pbull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13572

Greenie's supposed "brilliant" stewardship of the economy over the years has consisted of one basic philosophy, in my opinion: When the going gets tough, provide ample, or nearly unlimited, liquidity. My contention has been, and still is, that IT WON'T WORK THIS TIME. Why? Because this recession, to date, hasn't been because the consumer is in trouble. High interest rates are not choking the economy. This point has been, and maybe still is, arguable, but it is my starting point. The problem is a capex freeze across all industries. Everywhere. Business spending has gone from wildly excessive to, well, not zero, but the effect is roughly the same. The key word here is effect. It is the effect on the economy, on psychology. If my supposition on this issue is correct, monetary policy becomes irrelevent. The Fed is irrelevent. Greenspan is irrelevent. Contrary to every single story you see on TV or read in any publication, if I am correct, I repeat, if, then Mr. Greenjeans, by his own actions, has become an essentially powerless figurehead. There are reasons to doubt this. And there are reasons to believe that the Fed realizes this quandry. Now I'm going to beat a dead horse, but Fed governors hitting the news headlines daily trying to talk up the economy is about as clear a contrary indicator as there can be. Now, to address your precise point: Greenie in January urged banks to lend to "credible customers." And, ding-ding-ding, they aren't because they don't want to incur further credit risk. If THIS logical supposition is correct, and I believe it is but I've been wrong many times before, then what we have here is a growing CONFIDENCE crisis within the financial system. So, in completing the circle, it isn't about liquidity, it's about business confidence, and specifically, the lack of willingness of banks to lend in the early stages of a recession. Can you blame them? I don't. And, here again, Greenie can't do anything about that. I've rambled enough. Anyone who made it to the end of this post must be exhausted by now. PB

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (12404)	4/10/2001 1:57:46 AM
From: DOUG H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

Last months Consumer credit #'s tell the tale, the car is on fumes. Look for more cheeseburgers on credit cards. (I wonder why Congress acted quickly on personal BK reform?) Can you spell anticipation? Tax cuts? $60 billion out of a 3 trillion budget ain't spit. There's your fiscal fuel. Greenman holding bp's like they're personal secrets. Monetary relief? Covad/NP got hosed by the telemarket crowd. Don't look for voice merchants to grow the IP world. Greg's right about this point, Greenies inflation goblin hunt has choked the crap out of the very thing he attributes much of the past economies greatest productivity engine. Connectivity. Always on, highspeed, everywhere, anytime, got pushed back 5 years. Thanks AG.