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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken W who wrote (24451)	4/8/2001 11:34:22 AM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29382

Good Morning Ken. Recession means an economic slowdown, perhaps best monitored by GDP. Two consecutive quarters of lower GDP is a recession. We're halfway there. High techs, I venture to guess, equal about half or our GDP. Forget the stock prices, but look at the growth rates. It doesn't matter that some of these stocks have hit single digits, valuations are at least double digit. The growth rates are unsubstainable in an economic slowdown. You know the drill, but let's look at CSCO, since you just bought it. Earnings estimates for CSCO have been revised downward, WITHOUT guidance from the Co. Estimates are now about half of last year's for same quarter. I am sure that they will miss by at least 10% if not more when they report at the beginning of May. BTW, I am sure that you will be out of CSCO before they report, after all that's almost a month away. Sergio