To: Hawkmoon who wrote (67334 ) 6/18/2001 3:05:37 PM From: long-gone Respond to of 116764 India Plans Huge Weapons-Buying Program By Suryamurthy Ramachandran CNSNews.com Correspondent June 18, 2001 New Delhi (CNSNews.com) - India plans to spend $95 billion on weapons over the next 15 years, in a move analysts here Monday linked to fears Chinese nuclear proliferation could result from American plans to develop and deploy missile defense systems. "Missile defense will have an indirect impact on India for two reasons," Rakesh Sharma, a strategic analyst with Jawaharlal Nehru University said. "One, from the Chinese strategic response to it, and two, from the destabilized overall security environment in the region resulting from a renewed arms race in general that it is likely to trigger," he said. China and Russia have come out strongly against the proposals to build shields against missiles that could be launched in the future by unstable states. U.S. allies in Europe are also skeptical. India initially voiced opposition, later changed tack and expressed support for President Bush's plans, and still later said the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty - which prohibits such systems - "should not be abrogated unilaterally [by the U.S.]." It's the view of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that India made the remark about the ABM Treaty to mollify Moscow, since New Delhi buys most of its military hardware from Russia. India also has traditional close ties with the Russians, and would be loathe to alienate them, it said in a current study on Indo-U.S. ties. At the same time, it added, Bush's willingness to reach out to Russia on the issue of missile defense "has given India the space for endorsing the administration's position." China's entire inter-continental ballistic missile armory, about two-dozen strong, would be nullified should the missile defense plans go ahead, Sharma said. So too would Beijing's short-range ballistic missile capability. The natural Chinese response would be to accelerate the modernization and expansion of its nuclear arsenal. Sharma said the resulting security environment would heighten the threat perception in India and the state of readiness of its small nuclear force. "This could lead to India giving up its self-imposed moratorium [on nuclear tests] and renewing testing of nuclear weapons as well as delivery systems," he predicted. Such a response could in turn prompt India's arch-foe, Pakistan to take a similar step, leading to a regional mini-arms race and a renewal of Chinese and North Korean transfer of missile technology to Pakistan. Deepak Verma, a defense analyst with Delhi University, said Chinese proliferation could push India toward a decision "to fully weaponize and deploy its nuclear forces. Such a step would entail massive expenditure on nuclear command, control, communication and intelligence." "The trouble with Washington's non-proliferation policy with regard to South Asia is that it is contradictory," he argued. "Whereas the U.S. advocates a regional [nuclear] rollback, its policy on missile defense threatens to wreck the meaningful efforts towards global disarmament." Arms deals In this uncertain climate, India is likely to spend $95 billion in arms purchases over the next 15 years, including $15 billion on nuclear weapons research and $5 billion for the development of a nuclear command and control structure. The Air Force will get the largest slice of about $30 billion, much of it going towards new combat aircraft, AWACS and missiles. The Army will spend its share on tanks, ammunition and surveillance systems, while the Navy plans to buy two aircraft carriers, surveillance aircraft, submarines and missiles, according to some reports. Since Soviet times, India has been one of the largest customers of Russian weapons, which make up about 70 percent of New Delhi's arsenal. A senior defense ministry official said the relationship with India has changed, and is no longer a simple buyer and seller one. It is now a relationship of "joint development, joint production and joint export." Defense analyst Sharma said the figure to be spent by India was not enormous if one takes its future strategic requirements into consideration. Neighboring Pakistan's defense expenditure is more than twice as much as India's in gross domestic product terms (about 6.5 percent), although it has one-fourth of India's landmass and one-sixth of its coastline.cnsnews.com \\ForeignBureaus\\archive\\200106\\For20010618e.html