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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Venkie who wrote (35497)	4/8/2001 10:35:12 AM
From: Cactus Jack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Donnie, My guess is Allan will jump on board too for any sustained move up. Don't know about all of the others. Hope you're having a great weekend. jpgill

To: Venkie who wrote (35497)	4/8/2001 11:27:47 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

<<Show me the next Dell..Msft..Intc..Csco..Aol...I will be there and taking the plunge...>> I'll be there with you Donnie...=) Have a great weekend. Best Regards, Scott

To: Venkie who wrote (35497)	4/8/2001 12:47:26 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

<<The bears are in the same place the bulls were at Naz 5000 ... Go to the bear thread and ask how many were there for Dell..Aol..Qcom>> That's an interesting comment. Personally I was 120% margined long on tech stocks this time last year. I went to cash and took up residence in the CFZ a couple months later. All my buckz were in semi stocks, which held up OK for a while. So I came out OK, in fact I retired on the profts. A lot of us over at CFZ were raging bulls during the big tech mania. My guess: the Nasdaq for bears is now like it was for bulls around early 99. It's been deflated some, but has yet to do its inevitable over-reaction to significantly undervalued (on a historical P/E or P/S basis). For example, AMAT bottomed in 1996 with a P/S ratio around 1.2 I believe. It's still 2-3 times overvalued by those standards. I believe the Nasdaq will have to drop below 1000 for a short time before this is truly over. Bubbles are like that. The non-tech part of the SP500 ran up 200% from 1994-98, while GDP ran up maybe 30%, and it HAS NOT DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY YET. The chart for that is at grantsinvestor.com. So I think the Dow has hardly started its mean-reversion process yet. Consumer spending is the rate-determining step in how fast that happens.

To: Venkie who wrote (35497)	4/8/2001 7:55:13 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Allan is a great guy and smart man but he is locked in a fixed idea..therefore he has blinders on and may miss the next bull mkt.. If the first part of that sentence is true, then the rest doesn't matter. -ng Having said that, I pray that you are wrong. The race is very long and we'll get a few years yet to compare notes. I may miss the first part of the next good run -- it may be a large piece for all I know -- but I'll never lose money trying to guess when it has started. Cheers